While traders were sleeping—literally, the Asia session was flatter than a week-old soda—I stumbled on Torbjørn Bull Jenssen’s latest note for K33. His headline slapped me awake: “Without operational alpha, Bitcoin treasury company premiums will collapse.” Translation? If your entire listed company strategy is “buy bitcoin, flip the ticker to something vaguely crypto, then pray for magical yield,” you’re running on fumes.
Here’s What Actually Happened
Jenssen basically torched a business model that’s been quietly thriving since MicroStrategy lit the signal fire back in August 2020. You know the drill: issue stock, buy BTC, sit back, watch the so-called “treasury premium” inflate your share price faster than Do Kwon’s ego circa 2021. K33’s data shows some of these firms trading at 20-30% premiums to their underlying bitcoin per share. That’s free money—until it’s not.
He argues that unless these companies add operational alpha—think actual revenue, mining ops, proprietary trading desks—the market will stop paying anything above net-asset value.
“Simply raising funds to chase bitcoin yield is not a sustainable business plan,”Jenssen wrote. And honestly, I can’t find a flaw in that logic.
My Knee-Jerk Take (Spoiler: It’s Not Flattering)
I’ve been around since people thought Mt. Gox was a high-end ramen place, and I’ve noticed a pattern: whenever Wall Street meets crypto, somebody invents a clever but ultimately empty shell. Remember the ICO shell companies on Canadian exchanges in 2017? Same energy.
Right now Bitcoin’s flirting with $68,500 after last week’s CPI print cooled the macro doom talk. But price tailwinds can’t hide sloppy fundamentals forever. If BTC chops sideways into Q3—and the options desk at Deribit is pricing that scenario at a 43% probability—those juicy premiums will get arbitraged faster than you can say “GBTC discount 2022.”
Wait, What About the Supposed Yield?
Yeah, about that. Most of these treasury outfits park their coins on platforms like Celsius or BlockFi—oh wait, those blew up. The survivors are farming 2-3% using on-chain covered calls via Stacks derivatives or looping through Aave. That’s peanuts once you factor in borrow costs for the equity raise.
In my experience, the only sustainable bitcoin yield north of 5% involves either taking directional risk (delta-neutral my foot) or rolling the dice on unproven DeFi primitives. Jenssen’s research backs that up: K33’s back-test shows a hypothetical “cash-and-carry + covered call” strategy averaged just 1.7% annualized in 2023. Not exactly a stock-sweetening narrative.
Let’s Talk MicroStrategy—Because We Have To
Everyone’s favorite giga-bull is the elephant in this chat room. MSTR is still rocking a 100%+ premium to NAV, helped by the fact they actually do stuff: software licenses, consulting, and yeah, Saylor on CNBC every three weeks pumping “digital energy.” That’s operational alpha, whether you like the buzzwords or not.
The copycats? Most don’t even have a functioning landing page outside an SEC filing. If you strip out Saylor & Co., Jenssen says the median premium for smaller bitcoin treasuries already slipped from 18% to 9% since January 1. That’s a slow-motion rug pull.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
If you’re holding tickers like BTCCF or HUT solely for “BTC exposure,” double-check the math. Buying spot bitcoin on Swan or stacking via the new Fidelity ETF might be cheaper and honestly less headache. Premium compression is a one-way street—ask anyone who rode GBTC from +38% to –48% during the 2021-22 winter.
Besides, Uncle Sam’s spot ETF approvals in January 2024 changed the game. Liquid, regulated, 10-bp fee vehicles exist now. The whole “public company as bitcoin wrapper” hack is losing its novelty.
A Tangent Because I Can’t Help Myself
Did you see Nvidia hit a $3T market cap this week? Feels like every boardroom is suddenly an AI startup. The parallels with treasury bitcoin plays are uncanny: buzzword arbitrage, cheap capital, pray for multiple expansion. Difference is, Jensen Huang actually sells GPUs; some of these BTC shells can’t even spell EBITDA.
Where Do We Go From Here?
Jenssen hints that the next phase will be M&A and delistings. I can picture it: midsize miners scooping treasury outfits for their coin stacks, then spinning off the equity as a miner-plus-HODL hybrid. I’m 60% confident we’ll see at least one deal like that before New Year’s Eve.
As for the premiums, my back-of-the-napkin model (yeah, it lives in Google Sheets) says they converge to ±5% of NAV by October unless Bitcoin rips through the old all-time high at $73,800. Sideways market equals no story equals no premium—it’s almost too logical for crypto.
The Bottom Line
If your game plan is “ride the company premium,” the musical chairs are down to their final beat drop. Either that company finds real operational alpha or your share price is headed for a diet.
Bet on businesses, not wrappers. And if you just want bitcoin, stop overthinking it—buy bitcoin.
