Did We Just Witness the Fastest $10k Dip-and-Rip in Bitcoin History?
I woke up on June 8th, rubbed the sleep out of my eyes, and almost spilled my coffee when I saw the BTC/USDT chart: a crisp wick straight down to $100,000—then an equally crisp rebound. It felt like watching a base jumper touch the ground and bounce back mid-air. My first reaction? A mix of mild panic (because, well, six-figure BTC is still new territory) and geeky curiosity. How did the market absorb that hit so fast?
So I did what any self-respecting on-chain nerd does: fired up Glassnode, scrolled through CryptoQuant dashboards, pinged a couple of friends in the Wizard of Oz Telegram group, and started crunching numbers. I’d already spent three weeks mapping out Bitcoin’s new supply dynamics for another piece, so the timing was perfect. Here’s what I found—and why I’m surprisingly zen about the whole thing.
Here’s What Actually Happened
According to Glassnode’s Week-23 report (June 10), the wick to exactly $100,070 lasted less than 30 minutes on major spot exchanges. Derivatives desks showed a slightly deeper print—OKX briefly ticked $99,880—but spot liquidity below the round number was razor-thin. What impressed me was how quickly buyers stepped in:
- $1.23 billion in spot volume executed between $100k and $102k within 20 minutes (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken combined).
- Open interest on CME jumped 7.6% as U.S. traders started their Friday morning, hinting at fresh longs rather than forced covers.
- The Coinbase Premium Index flipped from –0.15% to +0.42% in that same hour—signalling U.S. dip-buyers weren’t messing around.
I’ve noticed that when the U.S. spot desks lead a reversal, price action tends to stick. That was the case here: by the end of June 9, BTC printed a weekly high of $110,600, an intraday climb of a little over 4%. Nothing mind-blowing, but enough to re-establish confidence that the $100k floor is not just psychological fluff.
How the On-Chain Picture Flipped My Initial Panic
After the adrenaline wore off, I dove into the data. Two metrics jumped out at me:
1. Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis Holds at $94,300
2. Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Price Clocks $46,200
(Glassnode calls these the “thermal” lines.) Historically, when spot price trades solidly above both of these realized bands, drawdowns get bought quickly. Think mid-2020’s run from $10k to $20k, or early 2021’s Elon pump era.
Even more intriguing: 90-day Coin Days Destroyed—my personal favorite proxy for dormant supply moving—barely budged. We saw 0.26% of total supply churned during the dip, well below the 1.5% we saw in the brutal March 2020 crash. In plain English: old coins stayed put. Diamond hands were, again, diamond-y.
Wait, Didn’t We Just Get a 9% Drawdown on June 7?
Yep. Price slid from $110,200 to $100,070 across 36 hours—technically a 9% drawdown. A younger me would’ve expected cascading liquidations, but per Coinglass, only $312 million of leveraged longs were wiped. Compare that to the $1.3 billion liquidated during the FTX-Alameda scare, and it’s clear leverage is more muted in 2024.
I think that’s a result of new ETF flows absorbing volatility. The BlackRock IBIT ETF alone pulled in $250 million net in the first week of June. It’s the first time we’ve watched TradFi whales act as a steady-handed liquidity sponge in real time. It reminds me of Michael Saylor’s famous 2020 tweet: “Bitcoin is Hope.” Only now, hope has a BlackRock ticker symbol.
Why This $100k Line Means More Than Just a Nice Round Number
Humans love round numbers—ask any market psychologist. But this particular line also aligns eerily well with two technical anchors:
- The 21-week EMA sits at $99,750.
- The 0.382 Fibonacci retrace of the November 2023 to May 2024 impulse wave lands at $100,400.
No wonder the wicks keep getting absorbed there. As a friend at The Tie joked in Discord: “It’s like price has an emotional support dog named 100k.”
ETH/BTC, ALTS, and That Sneaky Rotation Trade
Tangential thought: while Bitcoin was playing ping-pong, the ETH/BTC ratio popped from 0.055 to 0.058. Some traders I follow (@DegenSpartan, @Arthur_0x) argued this hinted at rotation flows—people selling BTC at the round number scare and parking into ETH ahead of the long-awaited Pectra upgrade. I’m not fully convinced; correlation still stands at 0.86, but the mini-divergence is worth watching. If ETH regains 0.06, alts may get a second wind.
Okay, But Could We Smash Below $100k Anyway?
I wish I had a crystal ball, but here’s what the risk stack looks like:
- Macro: U.S. CPI print lands June 12. A surprise uptick could spook risk assets. BTC has tracked the real 10-year yield more closely lately (R² ≈ 0.52).
- MtGox Overhang: The trustee says distributions begin Q3. That’s 142k BTC chomping at retail nerves.
- ETF Profit-Taking: IBIT and FBTC reach their first quarterly rebalancing window July 2. If fresh inflows cool, we could see a lull.
Still, Glassnode puts the percentage of supply last active >2y at a record 57.9%. That’s my cushion. Unless those coins wake up en masse (hasn’t happened even in ‘China bans BTC’ sagas), I doubt we get sustained trade below the line.
The Vibe Check From Crypto Twitter and My Telegram Feeds
I scrolled CT for a good hour post-wick. The memes told a story: more SpongeBob “Buy the Dip” GIFs than “We’re So Back” copium tweets. That, oddly, is healthy. Even the usually doom-y Bitfinex’ed just mocked “banana in a tailpipe” wash trades instead of screaming fraud. The sentiment felt like measured optimism, not euphoria or fear—confirmed by the Fear & Greed Index holding at 69 (nice) through the dip.
What I’m Doing With My Bags (Not Financial Advice, Obviously)
In my experience, when a new psychological floor holds on its first real test, it often becomes the base for the next leg up. I’m not deploying fresh dry powder yet—I’d like the CPI and Fed meetings out of the way—but I’m comfortable keeping my BTC swing stack unhedged for now. I did, however, nibble a bit of BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) short via BTCD perp on FTX 2.0 (I know, I know) as a hedge against an alt-season burst.
The Longer-Term Picture: Halving Hangover or Second Wave?
It’s easy to forget we’re just seven weeks removed from the fourth halving. Past cycles show a post-halving lull—call it the “hangover”—lasting 90-120 days, followed by an acceleration phase. If history rhymes, late summer could bring fireworks. Add in the ETF demand base, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see JPMorgan’s infamous $146k fair-value note finally validated.
One caveat: hash rate growth has slowed to single digits since the halving, implying some miners may be cash-flow stressed at these price levels. If we dip hard, miner selling could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Keep tabs on the Miner Outflow Multiple; breakout above 2.0 would be my canary.
What This Means for Your Portfolio, a.k.a. My Two Sats
Look, nobody can call bottoms or tops with precision. But I think the market just sent us a loud signal: six-figure Bitcoin isn’t a fluke. The speed and conviction of the bounce tell me large pools of sidelined capital are hunting every 5-10% dip. That alone changes the game theory for traders who thought they could short to $80k.
If you’re long-term oriented, nothing about the dip should nudge you. If you’re short-term swing-trading, the playbook might be: buy near $100k, take profit into $115-120k, rinse, repeat, until macro throws a curveball. Just don’t tweet-brag your leverage; we’ve all seen how that ends.
One Last Tangent Before I Log Off
Isn’t it wild that we’re talking about a six-figure “psychological floor” when five years ago, $10k felt like Mount Everest? I re-read my 2019 journal entry: “If BTC ever hits 100k, I’m buying a Lambo.” Today I’m more excited about stacking sats and maybe a used Tesla Model 3. Funny how goals evolve.
Over to You, Bitcoin Community
I’m just one data-obsessed guy staring at charts. What are you seeing? Are you stacking, hedging, or unplugging until Labor Day? Drop your hot takes in the replies, tag me on Nostr, or ping the #on-chain-detectives channel on Discord. The beauty of Bitcoin is that every block gives us fresh evidence—and no single narrative gets to dominate for long.
