If you’ve ever watched a SpaceX launch and felt that mixture of awe and white-knuckled terror as the engines ignite, you already understand how the Bitcoin chart feels right now. The question rattling around every crypto Telegram group is simple: is this the same kind of parabolic burn we survived in 2017 and again in 2021, or is the candle just trolling us?
Here's What Actually Happened
Over the last seven days, Bitcoin clawed its way from roughly $105k to a peak just under $109,600. Yeah, I know the OGs will roll their eyes and say, “$4k candles used to be a big deal,” but that’s still a 3%+ move in a week—nothing to sneeze at in TradFi land. More interesting is the technical backdrop. Dutch analyst Merlijn The Trader posted a weekly TradingView chart showing three big red bowls—think cereal-sized if you’re bullish, salad-sized if you’re not—culminating in bright green boxes labeled “Parabolic Phase.” He’s basically saying, “We’ve completed the boring grind; buckle up for the vertical part.”
If you zoom out (seriously, do it; otherwise all you’ll see are squiggles), the structure eerily mirrors the run-ups ending in December 2017 and November 2021. Back then we saw price multiplies of roughly 2,000% and 1,300%, respectively. Merlijn’s current bowl started at the 2022 capitulation low—around $15,500—meaning even a conservative 1,300% rip would spit out a six-figure BTC. His top-of-box target? $335,000 in 2025. That’s a 205% pump from where you and I are sitting right now.
I’m Not Entirely Sure, But the Timing Checks Out
The timing piece is what makes me raise an eyebrow. Each of Bitcoin’s prior parabolic blow-offs fired 12-18 months after the block subsidy halving. We clocked the latest halving in April 2024, so Q3 2025 is smack in the historical sweet spot. And yeah, history doesn’t repeat but it sure loves to rhyme—like that one Drake song you can’t get out of your head even if you try.
On-chain momentum is also lining up. Glassnode’s Realized Cap HODL Waves (the rainbow chart that makes non-crypto friends question your life choices) shows older coins sitting tight while fresh buyers accumulate. When OG coins aren’t moving, that’s usually code for “whales are chilling; no distribution yet.” Pair that with an MVRV Z-Score that’s still south of the 7-9 danger zone and you’ve got the technical fuel for a stage-two ignition.
But Wait, Volume Looks Meh
Here’s where I get slightly nervous. The monthly close printed the highest candle body in Bitcoin’s history, but spot volume on Coinbase, Binance, and even degenerate favorite Bybit has actually trended down since April’s local top at $74k. Some traders argue that ETFs have rerouted liquidity, making exchange volume less useful. Fair, but I’d still prefer to see fat green bars on the histogram before betting the farm.
That said, Fidelity’s FBTC and BlackRock’s IBIT did record their biggest net inflows in three weeks—$112M and $97M, respectively—just as we bounced off $108k. Maybe the volume is just hiding behind a suit and tie.
Developer Corner: Why Parabolas Even Happen
If you’ve ever wondered how this works under the hood, think of Bitcoin’s price action like a network effect algorithm. The code base doesn’t magically speed up; instead, the attention graph compounds. Each new buyer becomes a marketing node who shills their cousin, who then buys, who then shills Twitter, and so on. Mathematically, that’s closer to an exponential function than a straight line.
Developer and open-source maintainer Jameson Lopp once explained it to me at a conference like this:
“Satoshi didn’t write any code telling the price to moon. What he did was cap the supply. Humans are the ones who turn scarcity into parabolas.”
So every four years, when the halving slices fresh supply in half, traders start running the ‘scarcity calculation’ in their heads again. Eventually, FOMO hits escape velocity and that is your parabola. The tricky part is spotting when the curve straightens out into a vertical line—the exact moment the rocket loses gravity and the air gets thin.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
Let’s be real: if you’re already all-in, these price targets feel like victory laps. But if you’re under-allocated—or worse, sitting entirely in stables because the macro headlines freaked you out—you might not get many more pullbacks. As Merlijn bluntly put it, “This phase doesn’t give second chances.” Sure, that’s a little dramatic, but historically, the final leg is savage. In 2017, BTC ripped from $8k to $20k in 30 days. In 2021, it sprinted from $30k to $69k in roughly 100. Blink and you’ll miss it.
What do you actually do with that info? I like dollar-cost-averaging because it keeps me from rage-buying tops. If BTC flashes $95k again (the lower bowl trendline), I add. If it never does, at least I’ve got skin in the game. Sitting out entirely until after the parabolic wedge breaks is like waiting for Uber stock in 2014. By the time it IPOed, half the upside was gone.
Tangential Nerd Thought: Will Ordinals and Runes Boost the Fire?
Random detour, but I can’t shake the feeling that Ordinals—Bitcoin’s version of NFTs—and Casey Rodarmor’s new Runes protocol might be an underrated catalyst. Imagine ETH-style meme coin mania—only on BTC’s base layer. Blockspace fees have already spiked to eight-month highs during inscription rushes, pushing miners to dump fewer coins. Less miner sell pressure plus more eyeballs? That’s bullish as heck, even if purists grumble.
Okay, But Could We Crash Instead?
Absolutely. If the U.S. job market tanks and the Fed does something weird—looking at you, crazy election year odds—risk assets could puke. Also, everyone and their neighbor is now comparing this run to prior cycles. When the whole market sees the same pattern, the pattern sometimes breaks. I’m not entirely sure, but I keep 15-20% dry powder for exactly that scenario.
Another worry: leverage. Open interest on CME hit an all-time high of $11.5B last week, and Binance’s BTCUSDT Perp funding rate briefly touched 0.18%—that’s borderline nosebleed for a top-five exchange. In 2021, similar levels preceded the May cascade liquidation. TL;DR: watch those funding rates like you watch gas fees during an ETH NFT mint.
If History Rhymes, What Might 2025 Look Like?
Let’s play with numbers. Say Bitcoin reaches the mid-green box target of $150k by July 2025—a modest 52% bump from here, aligning with analyst “Rekt Capital’s” recent $166k projection. That alone pushes total crypto market cap above $3T again, probably reviving the altcoin casino. Add in Ethereum’s post-Dencun scalability plus an ETF approval (still likely in my view), and suddenly you can imagine Solana DeFi TVL eclipsing its 2021 peak. Far-fetched? Maybe. But so was a $1T Bitcoin network back when Mt. Gox was still solvent.
My Personal Take Before I Let You Go
I’ll admit it: I’ve got butterflies. Watching a third parabola form in real time feels like you’re living inside the “Up Only” podcast intro. I’ve trimmed zero from my long-term cold storage, but I have moved some trading stack into stables, just in case the curve fails. If we break $120k on convincing volume, though, I’ll likely redeploy and strap in for whatever moon math comes next.
Either way, remember that parabolas are fun until they end. Then they’re brutal. Have a plan, keep your keys, and hydrate. The next 18 months are going to be spicy.
