Whoa, did you feel that jolt?
About an hour before we hit publish, BTC printed a clean candle above $107,500 on Kraken. Telegram chats blew up, Discord pings went wild, and even that one friend who only buys the top DM’d me a 🚀 emoji. Yeah, we’ve been here before—yet somehow every push toward a new psychological number (c’mon $110k) still makes the heart rate spike.
Here's what actually happened
London session was mostly snooze-worthy until an unexpected swell of bids chewed through the sell wall at $105,500. Once that cracked, the algo bots kicked in. We ripped through $106,500, tagged $107,500, and tapped $108,792 for good measure. Right now we’re chopping around $107,800 with the hourly Simple Moving Average curling up underneath like a safety net.
For the TA crowd, there’s a neat little bullish trend line hugging price at $107,600. The MACD? Firmly green. RSI? North of 50 but not yet overheated. In plain English: momentum feels intact as long as we guard that $106,500–$107,200 cushion.
Community hot-takes flying across the timeline
@CryptoChimera: “Holding spot, riding perp; if we clear $109,200 I’m YOLO-ing size. Stops tight. No guts, no glory.”
@HODLBeth: “I’ve seen these mini pumps fizzle a hundred times. Wake me when we close ABOVE $110k on the daily.”
I’m torn, honestly. Part of me wants to ape in with Chimera, but Beth’s caution resonates. We’ve been rugged by false breakouts more times than we’d like to admit.
Why this matters for your stack
Big picture, $110,000 is more than just an even number. It’s where a cluster of late-2021 bagholders finally break even. If they dump, we could see a nasty wick back to $105k. But if they diamond-hand it, we might sprint straight to the $112,000 liquidity pocket the on-chain analysts keep flagging.
Glassnode’s “coin days destroyed” is still muted, which tells me OG coins aren’t moving much. On-chain activity hasn’t spiked the way it did during the 2021 melt-up—so maybe supply really is getting tight.
Now here’s the interesting part
Deribit’s options desk shows max pain for Friday’s expiry hovering around $105k. Usually that acts like a gravitational pull, but spot buyers have ignored it all week. If we stay above $107,500 into expiry, those short gamma desks could end up forced buyers—jet fuel for a weekend squeeze.
On the flip side, funding rates on Binance perpetuals have crept into the 0.04% range. Not nose-bleed, but enough to make me wonder if we’re getting crowded.
Voices from the trenches
We tossed a quick poll in our Discord:
- 42% think we close Sunday above $110k
- 37% expect a pullback to $104k first
- 21% shrugged and just stacked sats, poll be damned
One veteran miner, “HashDaddy”, chimed in:
“Electricity costs are up, difficulty’s nasty, but with BTC sniffing $110k, I’m not capitulating. If anything, I’m hoarding coins and paying bills in fiat.”
I hear him. Miners selling less is historically bullish—but I’m not entirely sure how long they can hold out if hashprice keeps grinding down.
Okay, but what could wreck this setup?
Scenario A: We fail to break $108,800 and gravity drags us to the trend line at $107,500. That’s survivable. Scenario B: Bears push through $107,200 and then $106,500. That opens air down to $105,500—and below that, the chart gets ugly fast.
Macro hasn’t helped either. Powell’s speech next week could spook risk markets. Remember the last FOMC? BTC puked 7% in an hour. Keep the calendar handy.
Random but relevant tangent
Anyone else notice Lightning Network capacity inching toward 6,000 BTC again? Feels like the plumbing is quietly being reinforced while we’re all doom-scrolling charts. I’m betting that matters when actual retail mania returns—whenever that is.
So, how are we playing it?
Personally, I’ve got a ladder of bids from $106,900 down to $105,600. If we nuke those, I’m stepping aside and buying despair later. On the upside, I’ll take partial profits at $109,800 and let runners ride to $112k if the gods allow.
None of this is gospel; it’s just how I’m trying to stay sane in a market that routinely breaks brains. Do your own research, use a hardware wallet, and don’t margin long with rent money.
What happens next is on all of us
We can obsess over Fibonacci levels and tweet threads all day, but the market cares about one thing: collective conviction. If we decide $110k is cheap, price will oblige. If we flinch, well… see you back at $97k support.
Your move, crypto fam. Drop your takes in our Telegram, tag us on Nostr, or go full boomer and email. Either way, keep the conversation—and the memes—rolling.
