I was nursing an over-extracted espresso yesterday when my Telegram lit up like a Christmas tree—everyone from my college roommate to the random guy who ran the 2021 Dogecoin tip bot was panicking: “Dude, did you see Melika’s chart? We’re heading for sub-$100K!” In my experience, panic is usually when the best conversations happen, so I dove in. Here’s how the last 24 hours have unfolded from the trenches.
Here's What Actually Happened
First things first: Bitcoin (BTC) printed an intraday low around $104,500 early Tuesday after spending the better part of March hovering near the new ATH of $111,900. On TradingView, analyst @MelikaTrader94 slapped a thick red descending trendline on the 4-hour chart. Since the March 14th top, every rally has smacked right into that line and rolled over. You don’t need to be PlanB to notice that’s classic bearish pressure.
The crux of Melika’s call is simple: if BTC gets rejected again—which, at press time, looked likely—we may tumble to a horizontal support band hiding just under the big psychological $100K level, specifically around $99,000. That’s roughly a 6-7% haircut from where we’re sitting now. Nothing catastrophic in crypto-land, yet enough to flush over-levered longs on Binance and Bybit.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
Most of us have weathered worse—remember the 2022 horror show? But after a month of relentless green candles, a red weekly close feels, well, illegal. Liquidations have already started nibbling at the perma-bulls: Coinglass shows about $230 million in long positions wrecked over the last 48 hours across major futures venues.
Now here’s the interesting part: Melika isn’t a permabear. In fact, she thinks that flush is necessary. The idea is to shake out weak hands, reset funding rates, and then slingshot to new highs—$114K+ is her first target once we break that stubborn trendline. It’s the classic “correction before continuation” play.
Voices From the Front Lines
"Look, a dip to $99K doesn’t scare me. I’ve been stacking since sub-$20K. If anything, that’s a gift." — @_wizardofhoddle on X
"Every cycle has a mid-way puke. If you can’t handle minus 10%, you’re in the wrong game." — Linda, admin of the r/BitcoinMarkets subreddit
Not everyone is calm, though. A few folks in my Discord keep bringing up the Mt. Gox creditor repayments (due later this year) and the looming German government stash. They worry any downside momentum could snowball if big wallets start moving coins.
Let’s Talk Technicals Without the Jargon Overload
The descending trendline Melika drew is anchored at the March peak and touches three subsequent lower highs—textbook. Volume is fading on each bounce, a sign buyers are running out of juice. On the flip side, the $99K zone lines up with a confluence of:
- February’s breakout retest level
- High open interest node on the VPVR (visible range volume profile) tool
- The 0.382 Fib retrace of the entire January–March run
In plain English, there’s a lot of limit bids parked down there. Smart money loves buying where everyone else is capitulating.
Tangential Rabbit Hole: Stablecoin Flows
While charting this, I got sidetracked by CryptoQuant’s stablecoin exchange inflow metric. We’re seeing a subtle uptick—about $320 million USDT and USDC hit Coinbase and OKX in the last 24 hours. Historically, that kind of dry powder arriving has preceded local bottoms. I can’t promise causation, but it’s a breadcrumb worth noting.
So, Is $100K the New $20K?
There’s a psychological shift here that’s hard to quantify. Back in 2020-21, $20K felt like an insurmountable ceiling—now it’s a distant floor. If we legitimately close a daily candle under $100K, that mental support could flip into a magnet for fear. Personally, I think the bigger test is whether we bounce decisively within that $98-100K box. Anything deeper, say $93K, and the narrative changes from ‘healthy pullback’ to ‘where did everyone go?’
Community Game Plan (No Financial Advice, Obviously)
Here’s what people in my circle are considering:
- Place stink bids between $97,500-$99,500. If the wick comes, be ready.
- Watch funding rates. When they flip negative on perpetuals, it’s usually safer to long.
- Set tight invalidation—if we nuke past $95K, re-evaluate. Nobody wants to marry a bag.
- Keep an eye on macro. FOMC minutes next week could amplify volatility. Don’t trade blind.
And yes, a couple of degen friends are eyeing short-dated $120K calls on Deribit for May expiry, betting we rocket once the dust settles. Risky, but hey—no guts, no sats, right?
What Could Invalidate This Whole Story
If BTC manages to bulldoze through that descending trendline before visiting $99K—say we get a clean close above $108,800 with solid volume—Melika’s bear setup is basically toast. That’s the beauty (and curse) of TA: it adapts.
My Two Satoshis Before I Refill the Espresso
I’ve noticed that every cycle hands us the same emotional test wrapped in a different price tag. Today it’s $100K; tomorrow it’ll be $250K. At the end of the day, I think the broader uptrend remains intact. I’m not immune to jitters—my Ledger balances look smaller in red—but zooming out, the fundamentals (ETF inflows, hash rate, Lightning adoption) haven’t blinked.
If we flush to $99K, I’ll probably join the buy-the-dip brigade with a measured spot order. If we don’t, I’ll keep stacking on my boring DCA schedule. Either way, I won’t be the guy rage-selling sats that took me years to accumulate. Learned that lesson in 2018, thanks very much.
Stay safe, keep your keys offline, and remember: the market loves max pain—but it also rewards patience.
