This is breaking right now, so grab the cold brew and keep one eye on the chart.
Wait, Was June Always This Boring?
Veteran trader Daan Crypto Trades reminded Twitter—yes, I still call it Twitter—that June is Bitcoin’s perennial nap time. The numbers back him up: since 2013, the average June return is basically zero at -0.12%. You could’ve stuffed your sats under the mattress and gotten the same result. I know, snooze-fest.
But here’s the kicker: July historically wakes the beast. According to Coinglass, July posts a mean +7.56% pop and a median of +8.90%. Eight out of the last twelve Julys finished green. That’s hardly coincidence; that’s muscle memory.
Here Comes the Holiday Liquidity Trap
Traders love to talk seasonality, but they often forget the calendar’s quirks. U.S. desks go half-staff for the Fourth of July barbecue, Europeans flee to the coast, and Asia runs the show on thinner books. Illiquidity is a double-edged katana: breakouts rip faster, but fake-outs sting harder. Remember 2020? We rocketed +24.03% in July, only to cough up -7.51% by September.
I can’t stop thinking about that Friday close: BTC was hovering at $107,344—mere inches from the all-time-high cluster, yet Daan warned, “no weekly close above resistance yet.” One candle. That’s all it takes to flip sentiment from “dead money” to “FOMO frenzy.”
Why July Isn’t a Free Lunch
You’re probably asking, “If July’s so great, why not ape in today?” Because August and September lurk right behind the curtain. Historically, August cools to a modest +1.75%, and September turns into a pumpkin at -3.77%. The 2017 script is tattooed on OGs’ brains: a dizzying +65.32% August melt-up followed by a nasty -7.44% flush.
Daan’s mantra: “July lifts, August drifts, September cliffs.”
That rhyme sticks—mainly because it keeps you humble when your PnL feels invincible.
Altcoins: Still Waiting for the Bell to Ring
If you’re slumming it outside the Bitcoin sandbox, check TOTAL3—the altcoin cap ex-BTC & ETH. It’s dancing around $950B resistance like it’s afraid of commitment. Until that line breaks, alt season is a costume party without a DJ. Yeah, some meme coins pump on TikTok flashes, but structure still rules.
Macro Storm Clouds—or Tailwind?
The next two weeks are stuffed: U.S. CPI on July 11, Fed meeting minutes the day after, plus everybody’s doom-scrolling Europe’s snap elections. ETF inflows have been tepid ever since professors started yelling about “political beta.” If Powell blinks and hints at a cut, July could repeat its historical fireworks. If he doubles down on “higher for longer,” September’s horror show might debut early.
Honestly, the mixed signals are giving me whiplash. On-chain data shows long-term holders accumulating, but options flow is stacked with fresh put spreads from funds that believe resistance at $110K survives the summer.
So, What’s the Play?
I’m not your financial advisor—just a caffeine-fueled nerd yelling at TradingView—but here’s how I’m thinking about it right now:
- Respect the weekly close. One or two candles above $110K and all-time-high tweets write themselves. Fail again, and we’re stuck in chop city.
- Size down into August. History says the party ends fast. Keep dry powder for those so-called “September gifts.”
- Watch ETF flows. We’ve seen net outflows three weeks straight. A flip to green would be the smoke signal that institutions are back from the Hamptons.
- Don’t forget liquidity pockets. Gaps at $99K-$101K and $92K-$94K are magnets if bulls drop the ball.
Personal Take Before I Hit ‘Publish’
I can’t shake the feeling that markets are savoring one last calm breath before a summer storm. Maybe I’m paranoid. Or maybe 12 years of heat-map data is whispering, “You’ve seen this movie.” Either way, I’m keeping alerts loud and leverage light. July rewards patience—but history also shreds the over-confident. Let’s see which script 2025 chooses to steal.
