While traders were sleeping, BTC did that infuriating thing it always does—snapped higher the moment everyone turned bearish. European desks opened to a $105,000 print, erasing the weekend’s scary dip under six-figures. A sigh of relief? Maybe. But I’m not entirely convinced, and neither is the veteran technician who calls himself Quantum Ascend.
Here’s What Actually Happened
At roughly 09:20 UTC, a burst of spot bids on Coinbase and Bitstamp shoved price from $102.4K to $105.3K in ten minutes. Deribit’s perpetuals immediately followed, dragging funding back to +0.01%. I’ve noticed that exact micro-structure before—usually a whale clearing the order book to force shorts into submission. Good for a scalp, but it rarely signals the all-clear.
Quantum Ascend—yeah, the guy who nailed last March’s $58K breakout—showed his followers a side-by-side of the current candle structure against 2021. His words hit like cold water:
“Same exact pattern—run-up, one high, back down, second high… then an ABC dump. I still don’t think we’ve seen the C-wave low.”
In 2021 that C-wave wicked straight to the 0.618 Fibonacci retrace. Plug that math into today’s range and you get a $96,500–$92,000 target zone. He calls it the “pain box.” I call it the place nobody wants to bid until, well, everyone suddenly must.
The Relief Rally People Keep Fomo-ing
Now here’s the interesting part: the same chart proposes a $107K–$108K pit-stop. That’s where a halving-to-date trend-line caps price. I think of it like touching a hot stove—Bitcoin will tag it, investors will scream “new ATH or bust,” then the market makers yank the floorboards.
We already saw a mini-version of that fizzle last Friday. I was on a late flight, watching the order book on my phone, slightly confused because spot kept bleeding while perpetual funding stayed green. It smelled like distribution. Sure enough, we nuked to $99.8K within hours.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
Altcoins get their fifteen minutes during these wave-four bounces. Ascend pointed to July 2021 when ETH ripped 43% in nine days even as BTC eventually revisited lows. If his read is right, a similar pop could be brewing. In my experience, that’s prime trap territory—great for nimble traders, brutal for diamond hands chasing green candles.
The macro backdrop isn’t helping. U.S. CPI prints tomorrow; the Fed meets next week. Every trad-fi desk I chat with is whispering “restrictive for longer.” A hawkish dot plot plus a Bitcoin relief rally? That combo feels off. Something’s got to give.
The CME Gap Nobody Can Shut Up About
There’s an unfilled futures gap at $92,000. Retail loves those gaps; pros love fading retail. Ascend calls it a “washing machine.” I’m not entirely sure we even have to close it—gaps above $38K from 2020 are still wide open—but the market’s collective obsession can become self-fulfilling. Keep a sticky note at $92K just in case.
What the Charts Are Screaming Right Now
- Five-wave impulse from the $58K October base looks complete.
- A–B–C flat unfolding; wave C currently mid-run, with wave three likely done at $99.8K.
- Wave four target: $107K–$108K. That’s today’s potential supply wall.
- Wave five splash-down zone: $96.5K to $92K, aligning with 0.702–0.618 Fib and yes, the CME gap.
I’ll level with you—Elliott counts make my head spin, but price does rhyme. The resemblance to 2021 is eerie enough that I’m paying attention.
So, What Am I Doing?
I hammered a tiny spot buy yesterday at $100K because, well, I like discounts. But I’m keeping plenty of dry powder. If we spike to $108K I’ll likely fade it, reload lower, and pray my broadband survives the volatility. Not investment advice; just one degen talking to another.
Long term? Ascend caps his next bull-leg target at $132,000. That’s not the moonshot some influencers pitch, yet two separate Fib extensions land there, plus it coincides with a projected drop in BTC dominance. Translation: that’s when alts could really sing. I’ve noticed similar confluence on my weekly chart, so I’m inclined to agree.
Bottom Line and a Quick Nudge
The market is still digesting the weekend scare. Yes, we’re back above $105K, but structural risks remain. Watch $108K like a hawk, keep alerts at $96.5K and $92K, and don’t get hypnotized by every green candle. If the flush comes quickly, great—history says that’s when strong hands get paid.
Call to action: Set your stops, brace for whiplash, and—if you have the stomach—start building a wish-list for the pain box. As always, survive first; dollar-cost later.
