I still remember a rain-soaked Tuesday in March 2019. I was holed up in a coworking space in Lisbon, desperately refreshing TradingView while the espresso machine hissed in the background. ADA was languishing below ten cents back then, and the sentiment was so toxic you could taste the despair. A full cycle later, here we are, flirting with $0.86 while the broader market blinks in disbelief. If you’d told 2019-me we’d be debating whether Cardano can crack a dollar in Q1 2024, I’d have laughed—and then quietly bought more.
Here's What Actually Happened
Over the last 48 hours, ADA has clawed its way from a low of $0.720 to a local top at $0.8643. The move wasn’t a straight shot. We chewed through resistance at $0.75, then $0.80, and finally $0.82 before stalling inches below the psychological $0.8650 wall. According to Kraken’s hourly chart, the pair is riding above its 100-hour simple moving average for the first sustained period since early February.
That might sound like technical-analysis gobbledygook, so let me break it down. Staying above the 100-hour SMA tells me the short-term trend has flipped bullish, at least for now. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March 3 rally sits at $0.8280, and—no coincidence—that's exactly where a fresh bullish trend line is materializing. So long as ADA defends that shelf, the path of least resistance is up.
Why I'm Paying Attention to $0.90
Back in 2017, ADA’s chart taught me a painful lesson: round numbers matter because traders think they matter. We sailed through 8- and 9-cent levels only to get stonewalled at a clean dime. Fast-forward to 2024, and I’m seeing the same psychological battleground forming just under a buck. If the bulls can secure a daily close above $0.90, I think we sprint to the next magnet at $0.98 and possibly the big $1.00 before profit-takers show their faces.
My TradingView alerts are set like this:
- $0.8650 – breakout confirmation trigger
- $0.90 – first partial take-profit zone
- $0.98 – greed check
Could it blow past all three in one go? Sure. But, in my experience, ADA prefers the two-steps-forward, one-step-back waltz. Ask anyone who got chopped up in the 2021 summer doldrums around $1.30.
Now Here's the Interesting Part
The on-chain crowd—Glassnode, Santiment, and the diligent folks poking around CardanoScan—are whispering about stagnant exchange inflows. Fewer tokens sitting on exchanges usually means less immediate sell pressure. Meanwhile, the Hourly MACD has flipped positive, and the RSI is camping above 50 without looking overbought. When the momentum indicators line up with lower exchange balances, I start thinking accumulation, not distribution.
That said, I’m not entirely sure the macro backdrop is done throwing curveballs. The Fed’s next rate decision lands in two weeks. If Powell spooks risk assets, ADA could slip back under $0.80 faster than you can say "Volcker." I’ve watched too many brilliant setups crumble because of one off-hand comment from a central banker. So yes, I’m cautiously bullish—but I’ll keep dry powder.
Remembering the 2020 Fake-Out
Let me share a quick war story. In July 2020, ADA ripped from $0.08 to $0.15 almost overnight. Crypto Twitter screamed "new paradigm," meme accounts were posting Hoskinson-in-space GIFs, and I thought, "This feels toppy." Within a week, we retraced 35%. I bring that up because history loves to rhyme. If ADA fails to conquer $0.8650 this week, the next air pocket is lurking around $0.8000, then $0.7880—exactly where the 50% Fib of the current move resides. Beneath that sits the old war-horse support at $0.75. Break that, and we can forget about dollar dreams for a while.
How I'm Positioning My Own Bags
I’m running a modest spot position I accumulated in the $0.63–$0.70 range back in January. Nothing fancy—just cold storage on a Ledger Nano S. For tactical plays, I’m using perps on Bybit with 2× leverage. Why 2×? Because I like sleeping at night. My invalidation is a clean hourly close under $0.7880. If we kiss that level good-bye, I’m out and waiting for the dust to settle.
A quick shout-out to the Adalite wallet devs—staking through their interface has been surprisingly painless compared to the horror show of early 2021. I’m currently delegating to the BLOOM pool, partly because I’ve met the pool operator, Ben, twice at conferences. Human trust still counts in this pseudonymous playground.
What the Whales Are—or Aren't—Doing
I pinged an analyst friend at Messari, and he pointed out that wallets holding 1M–10M ADA have been net flat over the past week. They’re not dumping, but they’re not hoovering supply either. In my experience, whale indecision usually precedes a sharp move. They’re letting the shrimp do the price discovery, then they’ll pounce when direction is obvious. So if you see a sudden spike in large-txn volume right as ADA punches through $0.90, pay attention—that could be fuel for the run to $1.00.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
Cardano has always been a polarizing asset. Critics love to harp on "ghost chain" narratives, while supporters point to the Hydra scaling roadmap, partner chains like Midnight, and real-world deployments in Ethiopia. Personally, I don’t need ADA to become the one chain to rule them all. I just need it to behave predictably enough to trade around a core position. And right now, the technicals are whispering "up." If you’ve been sidelined, consider a nibble rather than FOMOing all-in. Dollar-cost averaging still works, even in a face-melting rally.
"Everyone wants the 5× overnight. Few survive the 80% drawdown that usually follows." — a crusty trader I met at Devcon Bogotá
Loose Ends and Wild Cards
• Hydra head count: Mainnet adoption remains thin. A sudden uptick could flip the narrative overnight.
• ETF rumors: A spot Cardano ETF is not on the SEC’s docket, but if Ethereum gets one, altcoin rotation usually follows.
• Charles Hoskinson's Twitter feed: Love him or hate him, a late-night tweet from Charles can move markets. I monitor it with TweetDeck alerts—no shame.
All that to say, keep your head on a swivel. Crypto rewards the patient but punishes the oblivious.
Where I Could Be Completely Wrong
Maybe the U.S. jobs report comes in hot, yields spike, and risk appetite evaporates. Maybe a critical exploit hits a major DEX on Cardano, tanking on-chain metrics overnight. I don’t have a crystal ball, and anyone who claims they do is selling something. The best we can do is manage risk, stay informed, and avoid marrying a narrative.
Nothing in this article is financial advice. I’m just a guy who’s been punched in the face by Mr. Market enough times to share a few bruised insights.
