Okay, honest question to kick us off: when was the last time an IPO in crypto land worked out exactly the way Crypto Twitter promised it would? I’m scratching my head here, because the list is painfully short. Still, John Deaton just dropped a spicy take—he thinks Ripple could snag a $100 billion valuation the moment it rings that IPO bell. Naturally, everyone is now asking the same follow-up: "Cool, so does XRP moon next?"
Here’s What Actually Happened
Last week, payments giant Circle finally pulled off the IPO we’ve been waiting on forever. The company—yes, the folks behind USDC—went from a sleepy $5 billion private valuation back in 2021 to roughly $63 billion once shares hit the public market. Not bad for an issuer whose market cap rank (#7 at the moment) still lags XRP’s. That’s the data point Deaton latched onto in his X post:
"If Circle can hit a 62B–75B market cap then Ripple, with nearly 40B XRP currently valued at $2 (≈$80B), could certainly hit a $100B market cap in this environment." — @JohnEDeaton1
Now, there’s a caveat hiding in plain sight: XRP isn’t actually $2 right now—it keeps wobbling around $0.55. Deaton’s math assumes a future scenario where XRP doubles, triples, or quadruples. Still, the attorney’s central point is that Ripple literally holds a war chest of XRP on its balance sheet. Give that stash a higher spot price, and boom, nine-figure valuation suddenly looks less crazy.
Wait, Doesn’t The SEC Cloud Still Hang Over Ripple?
Yep, and that’s why Brad Garlinghouse keeps repeating, "We’re in no rush." A full IPO prospectus while you’re half-tangled in court paperwork? Sounds like a compliance nightmare. But here’s the interesting twist: a big chunk of the lawsuit is already in the rear-view mirror after Judge Torres ruled last July that programmatic sales of XRP aren’t securities. What remains is basically the penalty phase.
In other words, Ripple might finally be nearing a tidy bow on this saga, and Wall Street loves a fresh start. For proof, look at the $700 million tender offer Ripple quietly floated to early investors, pricing secondary shares at $175 apiece. Do the back-of-the-napkin math on 141 million outstanding shares and you land around a $25 billion private valuation. That means big-money holders already value Ripple close to where Coinbase debuted in 2021—without Ripple being public yet.
How High Could XRP Actually Go?
I’ve seen every number from $5 to an eye-watering $100 in the comment threads. Personally, anything above $10 in the short run feels optimistic unless macro tailwinds get ridiculous—think Bitcoin at $150K, ETFs printing net inflows like it’s 2021 again, and the Fed dropping surprise rate cuts. But a conservative sanity check helps:
- If Ripple IPOs at $100 billion, that’s roughly a 4× move from today’s private price tag.
- Even if the stock and token have only a loose relationship, the "wealth effect" usually leaks into the native coin. Circle’s USDC supply did spike modestly after its IPO announcement.
- Let’s say XRP’s market cap mirrored that 4× move. We’re sitting at ~$30 billion right now, give or take. Quadruple it and you land near $120 billion.
- Divide that by the current circulating supply (~55 billion), and you get roughly $2.20 per XRP. Nice, but not generational wealth.
The hopium crowd naturally argues that the IPO + final SEC clarity could tighten the “utility premium” narrative—more banks using On-Demand Liquidity, more cross-border corridors, yada yada—and that could shrink circulating supply over time. Fair. But locking up billions of XRP in escrow doesn’t remove them from existence; it just times their release.
So, Should We Be Front-Running This Thing?
I’m not entirely sure. IPO timelines can drag. Remember how Coinbase filed its S-1 in December 2020 and didn’t actually list until April 2021? Ripple still has to settle fines, file a monster S-1, endure SEC comment letters, then do the whole roadshow circuit. We’re probably talking mid-to-late 2025 at the earliest—unless Garlinghouse fast-tracks it the moment the lawsuit ink dries.
On the bright side, macro sentiment around crypto equities is thawing. Fidelity, BlackRock, VanEck—everyone’s all-in on spot ETFs now, so fund managers might crave "pure-play" blockchain stocks beyond mining and exchanges. Ripple could scratch that itch.
Random Tangent: Remember Facebook’s Failed Stablecoin?
I can’t help but contrast this with Meta’s (then Facebook’s) doomed "Libra"/"Diem" project. Regulators shot it down partly because Zuck was sitting on the steering wheel. Ripple’s advantage? It’s already embedded in international payments deals—think Tranglo in Asia or Lulu Money in the UAE. That existing utility makes the "securities" argument feel weaker post-Torres decision. Maybe that’s why investors are lining up.
Why This Matters For Your Portfolio
If you’re heavy XRP already, a future IPO is basically a free-option catalyst. No need to play the stock directly. If you’re not in XRP and prefer equities, an eventual Ripple ticker—RPL? XRP?—could give you blockchain exposure without the key-management headache. One hilarious side-effect: U.S. residents who’ve struggled to get XRP on Coinbase since 2021 could just buy Ripple stock instead. Regulatory irony at its finest.
I’ll Level With You…
I still wrestle with the "XRP to $100" narrative. It implies a market cap north of $5 trillion—bigger than Apple and Microsoft combined. Could it happen eventually? Maybe if CBDCs all plug into XRP Ledger and we’re settling Mars-to-Earth remittances. Right now, I’d rather place a more grounded bet: modest IPO pop, XRP potentially reclaiming its 2018 all-time-high of $3.84, maybe nudging $5 if the stars align.
But hey, crypto has humbled me before. Ask anyone who laughed at DOGE in 2019. So I’ll keep some dry powder—and an eye on those SEC docket updates—just in case Deaton’s $100 billion prophecy decides to materialize faster than we expect.
