91% – that’s the year-to-date gain Bitcoin would clock if it actually tags $115,000 by July 31st. Let that sink in for a second.
Here's What Actually Happened
Over the weekend, BTC flirted with $68.4K, then backed off faster than I abandon half-baked meme-coin ideas. Plenty of us in the Telegram groups were bracing for a steeper pullback after Friday’s U.S. jobs-report jitters, but Saturday’s Asian session shock-bid caught even seasoned scalpers off guard. By Sunday night, coin-glass liquidation data showed roughly $130 million in short positions vaporized in 24 hours. Ouch.
Why the July $115K Call Isn’t as Crazy as It Sounds
So where does the oddly specific $115,000 forecast come from? Glassnode’s “Dormancy Flow” metric flashed its first major bull-ish crossover since October 2020. That’s the same signal some OGs rode from $11K all the way to the 2021 peak. I’m not saying lightning strikes twice, but the historical hit-rate is hard to ignore.
Meanwhile, Skew data shows BTC option traders stacking July 26th 110K-120K calls. Open interest on that strike range jumped 38% in three days. One trader in the “Crypto-Cartel” Discord joked, “Either someone’s about to buy a yacht, or they’re about to live in a cardboard box.” Same energy, different outcomes.
Now Here’s the Interesting Part – Jobs Data as the Spoiler
The elephant in the room is the Non-Farm Payrolls print due this Friday. If the labor market stays hotter than a Polygon NFT drop, the Fed can keep rates elevated, which often cools risk assets. But a softer-than-expected number? That’s rocket fuel. Remember March 2020? Bad macro news pushed the Fed into emergency easing, and Bitcoin went on a tear nine months later.
I think we’re staring at a mini-version of that setup. CME’s FedWatch tool now prices a 64% chance of a September rate cut, up from 48% a week ago. Every tenth of a percentage-point miss in payrolls could crank that probability higher – and, historically, BTC front-runs easy money by at least two months.
Three Coins I’m Personally Accumulating Right Now
Yes, Bitcoin is the headline act, but even die-hard maxis know the side-stage often delivers wilder gains. Here are the three tokens I’ve been averaging into, for better or worse:
1. Solana (SOL) – Trading at $155 while boasting daily active users rivaling Ethereum’s. If BTC marches toward $115K, SOL at $220 isn’t a stretch. I’m staking through Marinade to stack an extra 7%. Small tangent: I still can’t forgive them for the 17-hour outage last year, but the dev ecosystem keeps me hooked.
2. Fetch.ai (FET) – AI narratives refuse to die. With Nvidia flirting with a $3T market cap, tokenized AI plays feel like the cheap call options of the crypto world. FET’s Cirrus upgrade (June 18th) could be the catalyst that pushes it past its former $3.40 ATH.
3. Stacks (STX) – A bet on Bitcoin’s smart-contract layer. If BTC is the molten core, Stacks is the fancy high-rise we're bolting on top. The Nakamoto upgrade in Q3 unlocks faster confirmations; I’m personally targeting a $5 retest if the broader BTC narrative holds.
Community Sound-Bites – Bulls, Bears, and Confused Spectators
“115 is conservative. My Elliott Wave count screams 128K by August.” – @FiberTrader (X/Twitter)
“If payrolls smash expectations, see you at $58K first. Don’t underestimate macro.” – Rachel Lin, ex-Amber Group
“The halving effect hasn’t even kicked in yet. Miners are dumping pre-halving inventory. Post-June, supply shock hits.” – anon mining-pool admin on Reddit
I’m torn, to be honest. I love a good moon-shot like anyone else, but I’ve also watched two bull markets evaporate faster than my willpower in a doughnut shop. Still, the 2024-25 cycle feels different: institutional flows via BlackRock’s IBIT ETF are averaging $230 million daily, according to Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas. That kind of sustained bid didn’t exist in 2021.
What Could Go Sideways?
Quick brain-dump of risk factors that keep me up at night:
- Mt. Gox repayments – 142K BTC potentially hitting the market if trustee Kobayashi actually sticks to his October deadline.
- Regulatory rug-pull – Gary Gensler waking up on the wrong side of the bed and labeling more tokens as securities.
- Miner capitulation – Post-halving revenue compression is real; hash-price is already down 56% since April 20th.
Any one of these could capsize the $115K narrative faster than you can say "bear trap."
Where Do We Go From Here?
If jobs data underwhelms and the Fed signals even a whiff of dovishness at the June 12th FOMC meeting, I suspect we’re off to the races. A clean break above $73K sets up a textbook measured move to $92K, per the weekly cup-and-handle pattern tradingview nerds keep spamming. From there, FOMO could handle the final sprint.
I’ll leave you with this: during the 2017 bull run, BTC rallied 119% in the 90 days following the mid-cycle consolidation. Apply that same multiplier to the current $66K base, and you land almost exactly at $115K. History may not repeat, but it sure loves to rhyme.
So, are we moon-bound or heading for another fake-out? I’m leaning bullish but keeping dry powder on the sidelines. As always, manage your risk – because no one wants to be the exit liquidity for someone else’s trip to Lambo-land.
