92.4% — that’s how much Bitcoin has pumped since January 1st, and it’s the first number that flashed in our group chat the moment Michael Saylor doubled down on his $1 million BTC thesis this week.
Here’s What Actually Happened
During a live segment on Bloomberg TV, MicroStrategy’s Executive Chairman Michael Saylor casually brushed off talk of a fresh “crypto winter.”
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People are confusing short-term volatility with a secular bull market. There’s no winter coming, only adoption waves,"he said, while Bitcoin hovered around $37,400.
Saylor reminded everyone that MicroStrategy now holds 158,400 BTC (worth roughly $5.9 billion at today’s spot). For context, that’s more than 0.75% of Bitcoin’s total supply — a stat that still blows my mind every time I write it.
Why Folks Are Perking Up Again
In August 2022, when Saylor first floated the seven-figure price target, BTC was limping under $25k and sentiment felt like day-old coffee. Fast-forward to Q4 2023: spot ETF filings from BlackRock, Fidelity, and Franklin Templeton are sitting on the SEC’s desk, and Coinbase is reporting a 37% jump in institutional inflows quarter-over-quarter. It’s understandable the Laser-Eye crowd is dusting off that $1M meme.
Cause → Effect: If institutional demand collides with the April 2024 halving (reward dropping from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC), supply shock math starts to look “stupidly bullish,” as one Kraken OTC trader told me on Telegram.
Community Voices: The Hype, The Doubt, The Side-Eyes
The Discord I hang out in is split right down the middle. A few snippets:
@LunaLlama: “I’ve been DCA’ing since 2019. Saylor’s bravado is loud, but the on-chain data is louder. Long-term holder supply just hit an ATH.”
@BearBones: “He sells software. He also sells hopium. Remember when he said MicroStrategy would never issue more stock?”
I think both takes are fair. In my experience, Saylor’s persona can be polarizing, but the dude did spend $4.68 billion stacking BTC through every ugly dip of the last two years. That skin in the game speaks louder than tweets.
Now Here’s the Interesting Part
Glassnode just reported that 14.8 million BTC hasn’t moved in over a year — that’s a record 76% of circulating supply essentially frozen. Pair that with CoinShares’ latest weekly flow note: $293 million poured into BTC ETPs over the last 30 days, the highest streak since October 2021.
When I connect those dots, I can’t help but wonder: if sellers are sparse and buyers keep lining up, the order-book could thin out faster than DeFi TVL during an exploit. Maybe that’s why Saylor sounds extra confident.
But Isn’t a Recession Looming?
Great question. I caught a Spaces with Lyn Alden on Monday, and she reminded us the Fed still has $7.9 trillion on its balance sheet. Historically, Bitcoin’s best months have followed periods of expanding liquidity, not shrinking. If the Fed pauses or cuts in 2024, that could add more fuel.
Of course, macro can turn on a dime. If energy prices spike or the ETF gets a surprise denial, we could see another cascade similar to December 2021. I’ve noticed that people forget the road to $1M doesn’t have to be a straight line.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
If Saylor’s right, we could be in the early innings of a supply-demand squeeze. A single-digit percent allocation today could, in theory, 10× within a decade. Yet, if he’s wrong and regulators slam the brakes (think: 2025 tax overhaul or a globally coordinated mining crackdown), drawdowns north of 60% will test everyone’s conviction again.
Personally, I’m keeping my BTC stacked cold on a Trezor T, but I also keep USDC on Kraken Pro for those juicy dip-buy orders. Risk management > laser eyes.
Tangential Thought I Can’t Shake
Remember the 2013-era prediction that Bitcoin would “suck in all value like a black hole”? I used to roll my eyes. But with BlackRock ($9 trillion AUM) openly courting the asset, that black-hole analogy suddenly feels less sci-fi and more Bloomberg Terminal.
So, Could We Really See $1M?
Let’s do napkin math. Today’s market cap is roughly $730 billion. A $1M Bitcoin implies a $19 trillion cap — about equal to U.S. GDP. Sounds wild, yet gold sits near $12 trillion and global M2 money supply is $105 trillion. If Bitcoin captures just 15-18% of the “store-of-value” bucket over a decade, we’re in the ballpark.
Still, history reminds us that exponential curves flatten. Network effects can stall, tech can be leap-frogged (quantum FUD, anyone?), and governments can get grumpy. So yeah, I’m optimistic, but I’m also hedging with ETH staking and a sprinkle of RWAs on Maker.
Data-Driven Gut Check
- Year-to-date BTC: +132%
- NVT Ratio: 38.5 (below 10-year average, indicating undervaluation per Willy Woo)
- Hashrate ATH: 485 EH/s (Luxor index)
- CME Futures OI: $4.5 billion — highest since April 2022
Combine that with shrinking exchange balances (-21% since March 2020 per CryptoQuant) and I can see why Saylor feels the chill of winter is firmly behind us.
My Closing Take
I’m not carving $1,000,000 into any stone tablets, but if the ETF approval aligns with the halving, we might be telling newcomers about the “good old days” when BTC was under $40k. I’m positioning accordingly — with cautious optimism and plenty of dry powder.
DYOR, stay humble, and keep your keys safe.
