Ever wake up, refresh your price tracker, and whisper, "Wait… we're back above $109k again?" Yeah, same here. I legit had to double-check the ticker on TradingView because the last time Bitcoin poked its head around this neighborhood—late May—OG holders were dumping bags like it was a mining rig fire sale. Now, everyone’s calm. Too calm, if you ask me.
Here's What Actually Happened
Glassnode’s latest on-chain data shows realized profits for 1-year-plus holders have cratered 89% since that late-May peak. Back then, their realized profit spiked to roughly $126 million in a single day. Fast-forward to now and the 24-hour simple moving average is waddling around $13.6 million. For context, prices are almost identical—$110k in May vs. $109k today. Same stage, different vibe.
To be clear, realized profit is basically the exit ticket on a roller coaster. When you sell, Glassnode looks at the coin’s last on-chain move, calculates the difference, and tallies it up. If the token’s older than a year, you’re wearing the gray beard in this story (shout-out to my 2017 HODL fam who never transferred once because they lost their seed phrase).
Why Aren’t The Veterans Cashing Out This Time?
Honestly, I’m not entirely sure—and that’s the fun part. I’ve noticed three theories floating around my Twitter feed (or X feed—still can’t get used to that rebrand):
- More upside conviction: A lot of OGs follow Willy Woo’s on-chain models. Woo tweeted last week that his NVT Golden Cross is still “screaming bullish.” That might nudge paper hands, but the diamond crowd tends to listen.
- ETF digestion phase: After BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK 21Shares swallowed billions in spot ETF inflows earlier this year, some analysts—looking at you, James Seyffart—argue we’re still in an institutional price discovery period. Long-term wallets could be betting that the ‘real’ price equilibrium is higher.
- Tax calendar stuff: This is boring, but real. U.S. traders who sold in May are squared with the IRS for 2024. Mid-July? Not an obvious trigger. Europeans, meanwhile, are on vacation, and Aussies are stuck in winter. Less attention = fewer panic sells.
Of course, it could also just be that veteran wallets accidentally HODLed into cold storage racks and can’t find the darn ledger. Let’s not rule that out.
A Quick Tangent On ‘Diamond Hands’ Metrics
Not to geek out too much, but “1+ year holders” is a proxy—not gospel. Some wallets may belong to OTC desks or dormant exchange cold wallets. CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju likes to call these ‘passive whales.’ Even so, the trend usually lines up with human behavior. When they move coins, price often reacts (see the May dump).
Right now, Glassnode’s Coin Days Destroyed is also chilling near multi-month lows. Combine that with a flat Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) and you get a pretty chill market atmosphere—almost suspiciously zen.
Okay, But Does This Spell ‘Moon’ Or ‘Doom’ For Your Bags?
I think it leans bullish, but cautiously so. Here’s my gut read:
- When price revisits resistance and supply
doesn’t
fly onto exchanges, that’s normally a good sign. Think of it like restocking a bar: if bartenders won’t crack more beer cases, prices for the last six bottles probably go up. - We’ve still got $250 million of net inflows headed into exchanges (per CryptoQuant’s exchange netflow), so some folks are itching to sell. Yet price shrugged it off and climbed $2k anyway. That hints at hidden demand.
- The Fed meeting next month could jam a wrench in everything. If Powell sounds hawkish, risk assets might wobble. Historically, Bitcoin gets dragged into that mess for a few days before decoupling.
In my experience—been around since Mt. Gox was alive—when both momentum traders and long-term hodlers are aligned (low realized profits + steady RSI), we usually see a leg higher unless an exogenous shock kills the party.
What I’m Doing (Not Financial Advice, Seriously)
I’ve got a DCA script running on Kraken every Friday. I’m not pausing it. I did, however, nudge my stop-losses a tad wider on my Bybit perp longs because funding rates ticked from 0.03% to 0.08% overnight—that’s usually a ‘get clipped’ setup if you’re over-levered.
If you’re using tools like CoinGlass to stalk liquidation heatmaps, watch that $112k zone. There’s a fat stack of short liquidations up there, which could spark a quick wick to $115k if tripped. Meanwhile, the next serious support pool sits around $103k (25-day VWAP). Keep tabs.
Why This Matters For Your Portfolio
Whether you’re a day-trader on Bitget or someone who bought 0.02 BTC on Cash App, the headline takeaway is simple: the folks most likely to dump when scared aren’t dumping right now. That lowers immediate supply pressure and gives bulls more oxygen.
Could they suddenly reverse course? Sure. If we nuke below $100k again, realized profits will spike as fear sets in—same pattern we saw in April. Until that happens, history says we’re in ‘accumulation or markup’ mode.
As always, allergies to volatility are real. So, maybe keep your mental stop just as handy as your hardware wallet. And seriously, if you haven’t backed up your seed phrase since TikTok was still Musical.ly, do it tonight. Future You will thank Present You.
