Is everyone buying the top again, or am I just getting that déjà vu flashback to late 2021? That question has been ping-ponging around my brain since Bitcoin tapped $105,000 on Tuesday and then started wheezing like a marathoner hitting mile 25. I spent the last seven days trawling through TradingView charts, Glassnode dashboards, and more Telegram alpha rooms than I care to admit. Below is my unfiltered take on what’s really going on, why Captain Faibik’s call for a $92–94k retrace isn’t as crazy as it first sounds, and where I’m personally placing my chips (hint: I’m keeping a tight stop).
Here's What Actually Happened
First, the raw numbers—because without them we’re all just shouting on Crypto Twitter:
- Spot price briefly hit $105,000 on June 18, then settled around $102,400 as I’m typing this (data: Bitstamp).
- Weekly RSI peaked near 80 in early June but has already slumped to 61.88. That’s a textbook bearish divergence if you overlay price and momentum.
- Open interest in futures sits just under $70 billion, down 1.3% from Monday (Coinglass), even though overall derivatives volume inched up 1.6%. Fewer fresh bets, more churn.
- Roughly $71 million in longs were liquidated in the last 24 hours, according to Laevitas.
I know liquidations in the double-digit millions don’t sound like a big deal when meme coins are printing nine-figure scams weekly, but context matters: we haven’t seen that much long liquidation in a single day since the early-May flush. It tells me leverage is getting trimmed—even if no one wants to tweet about it.
Why the RSI Divergence Feels Different This Time
I’ve noticed an ugly little habit creeping back into crypto Twitter threads: people quoting 2022’s bear-market bottom at $16k and assuming the inverse pattern automatically plays out at six figures. The logic goes something like this:
“We bottomed with a bullish RSI divergence in 2022, so we’ll top with a bearish one in 2025. Easy 2× short!” — random anon on X
But here’s the snag. Back in late 2022, the Fed Funds Rate was 4.25–4.5%. Today it’s sitting at 5.5%, and Jerome Powell is basically doing a ‘maybe one cut, maybe none’ dance on CNBC. Higher rates bleed into every risk asset, Bitcoin included. That’s a totally different macro backdrop from the “QE is coming back” optimism we lived under in 2023–24. Even if the RSI signal rhymes, the melody underneath it definitely changed.
Technical readers might push back: ‘Momentum is momentum; macro doesn’t change the math.’ Fair—and yet flows do. We now have a record $18.4 billion sitting in U.S. spot BTC ETFs (source: Farside). If those big-name issuers—BlackRock, Fidelity—decide to rebalance at quarter-end, the spot order book could get squishy in ways the RSI can’t predict. Captain Faibik’s $92-94k zone suddenly stops looking like doomsday and more like a healthy ETF-driven re-rate.
That Pesky $108–109k Ceiling
Let me be brutally honest: I tried buying the May 19 breakout and got wicked out in under 24 hours. That same resistance band near $109k is still capping price. If we add the ascending trendline from December 2024 (see my messy TradingView chart, sorry), we get a rising wedge. Rising wedges don’t always nuke price, but when you combine them with falling RSI, they definitely reduce upside odds. My gut (and a quick look at Bookmap heat clusters) tells me algos keep re-loading sell blocks between $107.8k and $108.4k. Buyers push up, eat through the sponge, then get slapped back down.
Derivatives: The Canary in This Coal Mine
Over the weekend I zipped through the Greeks.Live dashboard, mostly to see if options traders were hedging these same concerns. Implied volatility on one-month at-the-money calls dropped from 61% to 56% in five days, while the put/call ratio nudged up from 0.57 to 0.66. That’s not full-blown panic, but it does tell me larger desks are buying downside protection rather than chasing perpetual funding rates.
Speaking of funding, Binance was printing +0.014% hourly for most of Tuesday—still positive, but noticeably lower than the +0.026% we saw in the May pump. Funding dampening + IV compression + climbing put/call = caution.
Tangential Thought: Ethereum’s Shadow
Quick detour. ETH/BTC hit 0.047 last night, its lowest ratio since early April. Historically, severe ETH underperformance often foreshadows Bitcoin cool-offs (June 2023, January 2024, ring any bells?). It’s not causal, but correlations matter in a market anchored by relative trade setups. If institutions rotate out of ETH because of the SEC’s never-ending ETF delay theater, some of that liquidity might clot in Bitcoin—or flee crypto altogether. My take: the latter feels more plausible if Powell keeps flexing and yields stay juicy.
How I Stress-Tested Faibik’s $92–94k Target
I pulled a three-year weekly chart and marked every RSI divergence >15 points. Only two led to corrections smaller than 10% (August 2021 and March 2024). The median drawdown after a divergence this large was 13.8%. Apply that to the recent $105k wick and you land smack between $90.6k and $92k. Not scientific perfection, but close enough that I won’t scoff at Faibik’s tweet.
Beyond charts, I also peeked at on-chain data via Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score. Whales (1k–10k BTC) have cooled their net buying for three consecutive weeks. Shrimp (sub-1 BTC) are still stacking, but we all know shrimps don’t move price—they feed liquidity to whales. If whales are distributing into strength, a sub-$94k dip becomes even more plausible.
Where the Bulls Could Still Be Right
I’m not all doom. Two data points keep me awake at night (in a good way):
- Miner reserves dropped to a two-year low at 1.82 million BTC, per CryptoQuant. Historically, miners lead tops by selling. If they’re not selling aggressively, maybe we haven’t reached true euphoria.
- Hashrate sailed past 655 EH/s—miners remain confident enough to plug in new rigs at these energy costs. They don’t do that if they expect $70k next month.
Could we still blast through $110k on some surprise ETF inflow spike or dovish Fed whisper? Absolutely. I’ll happily eat crow and hit a market buy if we print a daily close above $109k with volume confirmation. Until then, the risk/reward feels skewed to the downside.
Okay, So What Am I Doing With My Bags?
Positioning: I’ve rotated 30% of my liquid stack into stables (USDT and a little USDM on Mountain Protocol) and parked them in Curve’s sDAI pool for that comfy 7% APY. The rest sits on Ledger Live with a stop-limit order: if BTC tags $94,200, I’ll add a nibble, but I won’t get heroic before that.
I’ve also bought a cheap 30-day BTC put at $90k for 0.015 BTC premium. Worst case, it decays; best case, it cushions a rug pull.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
If you’re the kind of degen who rides a 20× long on Bybit, you already know what to do—either size down or strap in for a roller coaster. For everyone else, the lesson is simpler: vertical moves with weakening momentum rarely sustain. We saw it with DOGE in 2021, Solana in 2022, and TIA earlier this year. Bitcoin is obviously not a meme coin, but supply/demand physics still apply.
And let’s be real—Cap Faibik’s TL might be full of GIFs and wolf emojis, but he’s been on point before (he nailed the $16k bottom call in November 2022; I fact-checked it via Wayback Machine). Ignoring data because we dislike someone’s social persona is just bad trading hygiene.
My Hopelessly Honest Wrap-Up
I’d love to end with a bold prediction like “BTC will 3× before Christmas” (Michael Saylor voice, anyone?), but the truth is murkier. If the RSI keeps bleeding, open interest keeps slipping, and macro headwinds stay stiff, a dip to the mid-$90s feels more likely than new all-time highs in July. Yet Bitcoin has embarrassed bears more times than I can count.
So yeah, I’m mildly bearish, but I’m also humble. The orange coin has a talent for making doubters look silly.
I’ll keep my trading journal open—and if we do revisit $94k, I plan to be a cautious buyer. No victory laps until then.
