It’s Monday morning, the coffee hasn’t kicked in yet, and Ethereum just reminded everyone it refuses to stay quiet. Late Sunday, while most of the U.S. was doom-scrolling playoff scores, ETH punched through $2,598 on the heaviest hourly volume I’ve logged in a month. I had a very different plan for my evening, but that candle demanded screen time.
Here’s What Actually Happened
Bankr’s desk summed up the last 72 hours best:
“Higher lows at $2,506 → $2,512 → $2,540 → $2,560 tell you buyers are turning up earlier on every dip.”In plain English, each small pullback is getting bought faster, almost like someone is camping the bid ladder on Binance. Watching the heat map, you can actually see limit orders stack right above $2,550 every time price slips.
From Friday’s open near $2,535, ETH printed a lazy stair-step to $2,598, then settled into a $2,565–$2,585 nap zone. That works out to roughly +1.5% for the three-day stretch—hardly a moonshot, but context matters. The S&P 500 was flat, the dollar index (DXY) popped on that monster non-farm payroll beat, and yet crypto didn’t flinch. In my experience, when risk assets brush off hawkish macro data, something under the hood is brewing.
So, Why Didn’t The Fed Fear Kill The Party?
I keep coming back to two things:
- Congressional “Crypto Week” starts next Monday. Staffers keep leaking that a patchwork of stablecoin and custody bills might finally see markup. Politico called it “the most constructive tone in DC since 2021.” Maybe I’m jaded, but even that whiff of regulatory clarity is like catnip for funds sidelined since FTX blew up.
- The ETF drumbeat is getting louder. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas nudged his odds on a spot ETH ETF approval by year-end to 43% after hearing BlackRock’s legal team is “answering follow-ups” from the SEC. I’m not rearranging my portfolio around a maybe, but you can feel desks positioning.
Add in a sprinkle of Metaplanet (the Tokyo-listed firm) teasing another treasury allocation, and you’ve got a cocktail where dips get bought almost on autopilot.
Can We Talk About Those Moving Averages?
If you’re a chart nerd like me, the setup is pleasantly boring. The 20-hour SMA sits at $2,565 with price just on top of it—textbook short-term support. The 50-hour SMA at $2,538 continues to slope upward, telling us the broader trend hasn’t lost steam. I’ve noticed traders on CryptoTwitter arguing that the 200-hour EMA is the “real” line in the sand, but honestly, with liquidity this thin on weekends, I’d rather watch the faster averages where algos are clustering.
RSI? Spiked into overbought (74ish) during the $2,598 impulse, cooled to a neutral 52, and is now coiling—plenty of room for another jab higher. Nothing screams exhaustion yet.
Support, Resistance, And The Places I’ve Parked My Orders
I’m keeping three bid levels alive:
- $2,555 – that’s basically the 20-hour average plus a bit of slippage.
- $2,535 – a prior pivot low from Friday’s lunch dump.
- $2,505 – the volume shelf Bankr flagged; if that cracks, the structure changes, period.
On the other side, I’m eyeing the $2,590–$2,600 band (the recent high). A clean hourly close through there and I’ll add, gunning for $2,625—the March swing high that rejected twice. I’ll probably shave some at $2,590 and again near $2,625 because nothing frustrates me more than letting a green PnL evaporate while I blink.
What The On-Chain Stuff Is Whispering
I spent a chunk of Sunday poking around Nansen’s “Smart Money” dashboard. Wallets tagged as funds and VCs nudged net inflows of ~16k ETH over seven days. That’s not blockbuster, but it’s a four-week high and lines up with the higher-lows pattern we’re seeing in price. Meanwhile, USDC supply burned ~60 million last week—Circle’s predictable redemption flow. Lower stablecoin supply often spooks people, yet here it may signal cleaner leverage rather than forced deleveraging. I could be wrong, but that’s how I read it.
Is ETH Front-Running A Wider Alt-Season?
Quick tangent. Every time Ethereum breaks out in isolation, the Telegram chats light up with “alt-season confirmed” memes. I’m not convinced. The ETH/BTC ratio sits around 0.053, barely off February lows. In past cycles, ETH had to punch above 0.08 before SOL, AVAX, and the rest followed in force. Until I see that ratio reclaim 0.06, I’m treating this as an Ethereum-specific story—mostly driven by ETF chatter and DC vibes—rather than a systemic tide lifting all ships.
The Wild Card: Macroeconomics
Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll print came in at 303k vs. 200k expected. Historically, that kind of upside surprise would send yields north and squash anything remotely speculative. Yields indeed spiked (the 10-year touched 4.42%), but the crypto index shrugged. I can’t overstate how unusual that is. Last year, similar beats nuked ETH 8-10% in minutes. Maybe the market thinks the Fed is closer to “mission accomplished” on inflation, or maybe traders are simply numb.
Either way, if CPI this Wednesday tops 3.5%, I’d expect a knee-jerk sell-off. My personal plan: keep half-size positions overnight and widen stops to $2,495. I’d rather live to fight another day.
Why This Matters For Your Portfolio
If you missed the 2024 Bitcoin ETF melt-up, Ethereum could be your mulligan. But here’s the nuance: conviction matters more than leverage. Small size, wide stops, and respecting $2,510 as the bull/bear line give you staying power. In my experience, most traders blow up not because they’re wrong on direction, but because they size like heroes and can’t survive a 3% wick.
The other angle is staking yields. With ETH hovering at $2,570 and averaged staking APY near 3.6%, you’re basically earning a 3.6% dollar yield on a—potentially—appreciating asset. Compare that with the risk-free 10-year at 4.4%. Not a slam dunk, but if you believe ETH has asymmetric upside into ETF approval, the math starts to lean in ETH’s favor.
Random But Relevant: Meme Coins Are Cooling
I had to mention this: PEPE volume cratered 43% week-over-week, and DOGE open interest felt like someone yanked the plug Friday afternoon. Historically, when meme froth recedes, attention pivots back to Layer 1 majors. Maybe that’s anecdotal, but it fits the current vibe where ETH claws higher while Shiba fans grumble.
I’m Still Watching These Dates
- April 15-19: House Financial Services Committee’s “Crypto Week.” Even a watered-down stablecoin bill passing out of committee would be a mood booster.
- May 23: SEC’s final deadline on VanEck’s spot ETH ETF. Gensler could punt, but the market will front-run any hint of approval.
- June 12: FOMC—Powell pressers always inject volatility. File that under “obvious” but worth penciling.
Bottom Line: I’m Cautiously Long
Price above $2,510? I’m a buyer of dips. Hourly close through $2,600? I layer on. Break below $2,510 on volume? I step aside and reassess. Nothing fancy.
If you’re taller than me on the risk ladder, you might aim for $2,700+ into summer. Personally, I’ll be content to peel profits near $2,625 and trail a runner. Call me conservative, but I’ve learned the hard way: the market doesn’t care about my tweet thread victories.
Could I be totally off base? Sure. Maybe CPI blows up, Congress fumbles, and ETH slides to $2,300 in a week. I’m reserving the right to change my mind the second the data changes. For now, though, the numbers are gently but unmistakably pointing up. And that, my friends, is enough to keep me in the arena.
