105,382 – that’s how many bitcoins long-term holders have unloaded since mid-March, according to Glassnode. Everyone else is busy screenshotting their all-time-high portfolio values, yet all I can hear is the creaking floorboards of a market that’s getting top-heavy.
Here's What Actually Happened
Over the last 30 days BTC is up a modest 3.6%, now hovering around $107,500. The mood on Crypto-Twitter is borderline euphoric again – laser eyes are creeping back into profile pics, and a few influencers I respect (looking at you, Will Clemente) have started mumbling about a summer melt-up.
Then I opened CryptoQuant and nearly spat out my coffee. Contributor Crazzyblockk’s Quicktake shows Bitcoin Apparent Demand just flipped negative. In plain English: the combo of freshly mined coins plus long-term-holder (LTH) sell pressure is now larger than what new buyers are absorbing. That’s a textbook imbalance, and it hasn’t ended well the last few cycles.
Now Here’s the Interesting Part
People love to chant, “Miners always sell, nothing new!” Sure, but miners only dribble out about 900 BTC a day. What spooks me is the LTH cohort. Historically these wallets are the diamond-handed smart money that capitulates last. When they start trickling coins onto exchanges – even at these lofty prices – my gut says they’re front-running something ugly.
Just for perspective, the previous instance of negative Apparent Demand was August 2022, a month before BTC cratered from $25K to $18K. Different macro backdrop, I know, but the on-chain rhyme is too loud to ignore.
Why This Isn’t Just Another ‘Healthy Pullback’
1. Funding flips euphoric every pop. Perpetual swap funding on Bybit and Binance hit +41 bps annualized yesterday – frothier than it was at $115K in late April.
2. Short-term holder cost basis (Glassnode’s STH Floor) is now $98K. That’s acting like a magnet, not a trampoline. If we slice below it, forced liquidations snowball fast.
3. The FTX estate still owns roughly 20 million SOL and 30,000 BTC. Their court-approved liquidation schedule picks up pace in June. I’m stunned more people aren’t penciling that into their spreadsheets.
The Pushback I Keep Hearing
“But geopolitical tension is easing, and rate cuts are coming. Risk assets love that!”
Maybe. Yet Fed Funds futures have already priced in two cuts for 2024. If Powell blinks and only delivers one, we’ll discover real quick how much hopium is baked into crypto valuations.
“On-chain consolidation looks healthy, Avocado_onchain says so.”
He’s referencing the 30-day MA of Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) flattening out. Fair. But I’d counter that CDD is backward-looking; it tells us coins haven’t moved yet. Apparent Demand, on the other hand, is forward-looking – it tracks the marginal buyer’s ability to soak up supply that is moving now.
My Tangential Rant on ETF Flows
I keep a spreadsheet of daily US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows (thank you, Farside Investors). BlackRock’s IBIT went net-flat last week for the first time since launch. Fidelity and Ark too. Only Bitwise is still stacking meaningfully. If the ETF fountain dries up at the same time LTHs are heading for the exit, who’s left? TikTok traders?
So What Happens If $100K Breaks?
I’m watching the $94K-$96K cluster – that’s where Coinbase order book heatmaps show the first real bids. Under that sits the 100-week EMA around $82K. Sounds dramatic, but remember BTC fell 38% in three weeks after the March 2021 top; a similar drawdown from today’s level lands at $67K. I’m not predicting that, just reminding you history is allergic to straight lines.
Risk Management Over Hero Calls
In my experience, bragging about calling the exact top is a fool’s game. What matters is not getting wrecked if the market refuses to obey our bullish memes. I’ve trimmed 15% of my long-term stash into stables and parked them in a 5.2% USDC treasury ladder on Ondo. If we do blast through $120K I’ll happily buy back higher – paying up beats getting nuked.
Quick Word on Altcoins Before I Sign Off
Yes, SOL and DOGE are ripping again, but notice they’re doing it on declining volume. That reminds me of the August 2020 mini-altseason that reversed hard once BTC sneezed. Just keep a stop on anything that moon-shot 3x in a week; liquidity evaporates faster than you can say “slippage.”
Where My Head’s At Next
• June 12-13: FOMC meeting – I’ll be glued to the dot plot.
• Early July: Mt. Gox distributions could finally start; that’s 137K BTC looming.
• Late August: Jackson Hole – Powell loves dropping policy bombs there.
If even two of those catalysts tilt bearish, negative Apparent Demand could morph into a full-blown liquidity vacuum. And if I’m wrong? Great – the remaining 85% of my stack moons and I pop champagne with everyone else.
Bottom Line (Because My Friends Keep Asking)
I’m not screaming “sell everything.” I’m saying the data flashing on my dashboards – CryptoQuant, Glassnode, TensorCharts – is singing a different tune than the karaoke party on X. Maybe the song changes tomorrow, but for now I’m dancing near the exit.
