Okay, quick confession: when I fired up my options screener this morning and saw the $3 strike soaking up almost 40% of XRP's entire options volume, my first reaction was—wait, did CoinGlass glitch again? But nope, the numbers held after three refreshes, so here we are.
Here's What Actually Happened
Over the last 24 hours, roughly 18,000 call contracts on the $3 strike changed hands on Bit.com, leaving that strike with the fattest open interest stack I've seen on XRP in months. If you translate that into notional terms at today’s spot price (~$0.55), you’re staring at nearly $30 million worth of bullish side-bets.
Now here’s the interesting part: the bulk of those trades weren’t market sells (people closing positions)—they were aggressive buys, at the ask. That usually screams “new money’s piling in,” rather than whales quietly unloading.
“When you see clusters of OI building at a far-out strike like 3 bucks, someone’s either insanely hopeful, insanely hedged, or knows something we don’t.” — @Greeks.Live options desk
So Why $3? Isn’t That, Like, 5x From Here?
Yup, you did the math right. XRP would have to rip ~450% to turn those contracts in-the-money. That sounds bonkers until you remember two things:
- 2017 déjà vu: XRP did a 50x run that cycle, topping just above $3.30.
- Legal cloud parting: Judge Torres’ partial ruling in July gave bulls a reason to dream again. If the SEC settles (big if), floodgates, etc.
Still, 5x moves don’t spawn out of thin air. Which brings me to the chart that’s making the rounds on TradingView.
The “Falling Wedge” Everyone’s Drawing on XRP/BTC
If you zoom out on the weekly pair, XRP/BTC has been compressing inside a wedge since late 2022—lower highs, slightly higher lows, classic textbook stuff. We’re now kissing the apex around 0.000018 BTC. Historically, wedges break toward the prior trend, which (don’t laugh) was actually up back in 2021.
Will it break north? I’m not entirely sure, but the last two wedge breakouts on majors (think ETH/BTC in 2020 and SOL/BTC in late 2023) ran 2–3x versus BTC over a couple of months. Even a modest 50% outperform vs. BTC would shove USD-denominated XRP into the $0.80-1.00 range—still miles from $3, but wattage for the hype machine.
Okay, But Who’s the Smart Money Here?
Great question. The trades showed up mostly on Bit.com and Deribit—venues known for institutional flow—but we can’t definitively tag them to Pantera or Jump. What we can see from Genesis Volatility’s heatmap is that skew flipped positive (calls pricier than equivalent puts) for expiries all the way out to September 2024. That usually happens when desks are forced to re-hedge because someone with deep pockets just gobbled up a ton of calls.
Also, side note: XRP perpetual funding on Binance quietly flipped negative (-0.011%/8h) even as price nudged higher. To me that smells like derivatives shorts paying longs, which can become rocket fuel if spot actually lifts.
Things That Could Totally Derail This Party
Let’s keep it real:
- Macro mud: If Powell goes full hawk next FOMC, risk assets will get body-slammed, period.
- SEC curveballs: A nasty appeal or fresh enforcement action could freeze sentiment faster than you can say “Hinman emails.”
- Ripple selling: The company still unlocks a chunk of escrowed XRP every month. If they market-dump into strength, well, good luck.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio (Even If You Don’t Touch XRP)
The option market is basically a giant lie detector. When traders commit real capital to long-dated moon-shot strikes, it often telegraphs expected volatility for the entire alt universe. Remember when Doge calls exploded in early 2021? Most high-beta alts rallied in sympathy.
If XRP options are implying a 150% move over summer, you bet market-makers will hedge by buying spot across correlated tokens. So even if you’re camping in HBAR or XLM—assets that historically move with Ripple headlines—you might ride the same wave.
So… Am I Buying?
I haven’t hit the green button yet. I’m watching that wedge on XRP/BTC like a hawk. A daily close above 0.0000205 with 3%+ volume dominance on Binance would be my trigger. Until then, I’m nibbling on volatility spreads—long July $1 calls, short July $1.50s—to finance the gamble.
But hey, if you’ve got diamond hands and a stomach for SEC drama, those $3 calls are only 0.8 cents each right now. That’s basically the cost of a stale pretzel at LaGuardia. Just don’t blame me if they expire as salt-covered crumbs.
One Last Wild Thought Before I Go
Imagine Ripple actually wins outright, exchanges relist XRP in the U.S., and ETF chatter pops up (Grayscale loves a good lawsuit angle). Suddenly a 5x move doesn’t sound that crazy, does it? I’m not saying it’ll happen—but stranger things have happened in this space (looking at you, Pepe).
Whatever you do, size appropriately, hug your ledger, and remember: the market can stay irrational longer than your caffeine supply.
