I still remember the night in April 2021 when XRP ripped through the $1 mark for the first time in years. Crypto-Twitter nearly melted my phone, and every chartist suddenly discovered Fibonacci extensions they’d never used before. Fast-forward to today, and we’re back in déjà-vu territory: after months of legal skirmishes and yawning price action, XRP just printed a fat green candle past $2.327 before slamming on the brakes. Everyone’s talking about a glorious “round two” for the bulls. That might happen—yet I can’t shake the feeling we’re ignoring a couple of fire alarms blaring in the corner.
Here’s What Actually Happened
Between Monday morning and late Tuesday, XRP carved out a tidy +9% move—jumping from $2.165 to that $2.327 intraday high. The catalysts sounded obvious enough: Bitcoin chopped sideways under $72k, ETH stalled around $3,900, so the rotational money went alt-hunting. XRP’s order book on Kraken showed a neat vacuum above $2.20, and bots did the rest.
Technically, the move wasn’t random. A bullish trend line at roughly $2.20 (anchored from May 10’s pivot) held like superglue. Price also stayed glued to the 100-hour SMA, currently hovering near $2.18. I noticed funding rates on Bybit flipped positive for the first time in a week—tiny, 0.013%, but still a reminder that leverage is back in the room.
Then came the inevitable cool-down: a rejection at $2.327, a dip below $2.280, and now we’re skating around $2.24 as I write. The 50% Fib retrace of the whole push (roughly $2.246) already acted as a ping-pong table twice this morning. Meanwhile the hourly MACD is bleeding momentum, and RSI is perched just over 50—technically still bullish, but by a whisker.
Why I’m Not Joining the Moon-Chant Yet
I’m not entirely sure we’ve digested the obvious question: Who’s the incremental buyer above $2.30? Retail? Maybe. But spot volumes on Binance and Coinbase were lower than they were during early May’s failed breakout at $2.28. In my experience, sustainable rallies require follow-through volume. So far, that’s missing.
Now here’s the interesting part: derivatives tell a different story. Open interest on BitMEX’s XRPUSD perp shot up 17% in six hours, while average leverage climbed past 8x. Leverage chasing low-liquidity pumps is how you get face-ripping wicks—not healthy, ladder-style continuation.
And let’s not forget the elephant in the courthouse. Yes, Ripple scored a partial victory against the SEC last year, but the remedies phase is still open. The agency wants $2 billion in penalties; Ripple says $10 million tops. We won’t get clarity until at least June 30. Trading XRP like the case is a done deal feels premature.
What the Bulls Keep Repeating (And Why It Makes Me Nervous)
1. “Banks will deploy ODL en masse once the lawsuit is finished.”
Maybe—but have you read SWIFT’s new beta on CBDC settlement? Competition isn’t standing still.
2. “XRP is dirt cheap compared to the 2018 high of $3.84.”
Cheap is relative. In 2018 XRP’s circulating supply was ~39 billion. Today it’s over 54 billion. Market cap math matters.
3. “Bitcoin season is over, so it’s alt time.”
I’ve noticed alt seasons usually kick off after BTC dominance tops out. Dominance just bounced from 54% to 55.6%—hardly screaming ‘alt season.’
The Levels I’m Watching While Everyone Else Celebrates
The contrarian in me keeps staring at $2.20. That’s not just psychological support; it lines up with the trend line and the 76.4% Fib from $2.165 to $2.327. Lose that on a daily close, and the autobahn down to $2.15 opens fast. Below $2.15 sits the stale-but-reliable $2.12 shelf, where bids soaked up April’s dip.
On the upside, the ceiling is well-defined: $2.280, $2.30, $2.320. Break $2.320 decisively and, sure, we can talk about $2.35, maybe $2.40. But unless spot volume doubles, I’m wary of any candle that jumps straight to $2.45 or $2.50.
Okay, But Could I Be Wrong?
Absolutely. If the SEC settles amicably, XRP could rip 30% overnight—lawyers make terrible chart patterns. Also, if Ripple finally announces a U.S. banking partnership (there have been whispers about regional players in Texas), utility talk might morph into actual demand.
I’m also watching the macro backdrop: DXY just printed a lower high, and Treasury yields are sliding. If the Fed hints at a September rate cut, risk assets across the board might melt up, dragging XRP with them.
Where This Leaves My Portfolio
I closed a quick scalp long at $2.275 last night (Kraken fills—nothing fancy) and haven’t reopened. My plan is brutally simple:
- Bid a small tranche at $2.17 with a stop at $2.11—risking 2.8% for a potential pop back to $2.30.
- Add only if daily candle closes above $2.32 with 30% higher spot volume.
- Otherwise, stay flat and re-evaluate post-SEC headlines in late June.
Could I miss a moonshot? Sure. But preservation beats FOMO nine times out of ten.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
If you’re new to XRP, understand it’s a binary narrative coin right now—half legal battle, half cross-border payment fantasy. That can work wonders in bull markets, but it bites hard when sentiment flips. Don’t just chase green candles; chase conviction and liquidity.
I think we’ll get a clearer picture in the next 48 hours as weekend liquidity thins out. If buyers can’t even defend $2.20 when New York closes, the bull thesis probably needs a timeout.
As always, none of this is financial advice—just one skeptic’s late-night ramble over too much espresso.
