91% — that’s how much open interest on BTC futures evaporated in just 48 hours, according to Coinglass. That number jolted me awake faster than my double espresso this morning, and it’s why I’m penning this piece instead of doom-scrolling Telegram.
Here’s What Actually Happened
Late Sunday night, when most of crypto-Twitter was busy dissecting memes about Solana outages, Bitcoin quietly slipped beneath $105,000. That break wasn’t just another blip on a TradingView chart — it cracked a trendline we’ve been respecting since mid-June. A handful of analysts saw it coming. TehThomas, for instance, warned on the 7th that the righteous pump toward $111,000 was nothing more than an “internal liquidity grab.” I shrugged it off at the time; now I’m replaying his thread like a detective re-watching CCTV footage after the heist.
By Monday morning, the price had already tested — and failed to reclaim — that $105K channel. We sliced through $104,600 like a hot knife through butter, barely pausing for breath before tagging $102,800. If you’re wondering, yes, that level is the midpoint (the infamous 50% equilibrium) of the April swing low at $97K and July’s euphoria high of $108.5K. Lose the midpoint, and textbooks say you hunt the opposing extreme. Textbooks aren’t always right, but the market loves to make them look prophetic.
Why the War Headlines Aren’t the Whole Story
Everyone’s blaming geopolitics — “Middle East conflict, safe-haven flows, yada yada.” I’m not entirely convinced. Did rockets suddenly convince miners to dump treasuries? Unlikely. What feels more plausible is that big desks used the macro narrative as a smoke screen while unloading bags they accumulated during the summer chop. The on-chain data backs it up: Glassnode shows a 7,800 BTC outflow from long-dormant wallets since Friday — the largest weekly movement since March’s ETF frenzy.
Now here’s the interesting part: funding rates have flipped negative on Binance (-0.018% last I checked). Retail longs are capitulating, sure, but the bigger giveaway is that options IV hasn’t exploded the way it usually does in panic. To me, that screams complacent leverage flush rather than a genuine flight to safety. If you’ve traded crypto longer than two halvings, you know the nastiest legs down happen when nobody’s genuinely scared yet.
Are We Actually Staring at $88K?
Xanrox tossed out $88,000 as the “real” support. At first glance, that sounds sensational, but I pulled up a weekly chart and, annoyingly, it lines up with the old 2022 range high. Also, look at the BTCD (Bitcoin dominance) ripping past 64%. Altcoins are bleeding like they’re auditioning for a slasher flick, and that usually marks phase two of a Bitcoin drawdown — the part where BTC itself finally caves.
I’ll admit, $88K still feels aggressive. The market rarely grants the bears everything they pray for. But Doctor Profit’s $94K-$95K box? That sounds plausible. It coincides with the June CME gap, and CME gaps love getting filled almost as much as influencers love adding “AI” to their Twitter bios.
But Wait, Weren’t We Supposed to Moon After the Halving?
That’s the script, right? Supply shock, stock-to-flow, NGU technology. Look, I’m a halving truther too, but cycles are stretching. The 2017-to-2021 peak lengthened by about 5.5 months compared to 2013-to-2017. Apply that delta forward and a new ATH might not hit until Q1 2025. Meanwhile, miners have already started capitulating; hash ribbons flipped dark-red on September 28th. Historically, that precedes a 10-15% drawdown before the real uptrend. Timing’s messy, but the impulse rhyme is hard to ignore.
Liquidity Gaps No One’s Talking About
TehThomas keeps harping on Fair Value Gaps (FVGs). Some folks roll their eyes, yet the June 18-19 FVG at $97,200-$98,100 is still yawning wide open. If we respect the rule of “gaps love to close,” that paints a neon target just under the psychological $100K round number. And don’t forget the daily imbalance at $92,500 left behind by that absurd ETF rumor candle on May 24th.
Let me confess something: I’m not fully sold on the whole ICT order-block gospel. Sometimes it feels like astrology for quants. But the market has a way of validating whatever enough traders believe, and right now, “fill the gap” is practically religion.
What the Derivatives Desk Is Whispering
I rang up an old colleague who now sits at a mid-sized prop shop in Singapore. His desk sold 110-120K covered calls expiring Oct 27th, then immediately bought 95K protective puts. Translation: they’ve locked in upside profits from the July rally and paid peanuts for crash insurance. That’s not exactly the behaviour of a crew expecting $150K next week.
Implied vol for 1-week ATM options is at 61% — cheap compared to the 85% we saw during March’s ETF mini-mania. If you’re a volatility junkie, that screams “buy gamma.” If you’re a spot maxi, it screams “maybe wait before re-leveraging your house.” I’m leaning toward the second camp today.
So, Where’s the Floor?
Here’s my current map, scribbled on the back of a napkin at my neighbourhood coffee shop:
- $102,800 – short-term battleground we’re flirting with now.
- $97,500 – top of the June FVG and the 200-day EMA.
- $94,500 – Doctor Profit’s bounce zone, also May POC on Bybit.
- $88,000 – Xanrox’s doom line, aligns with 2022 macro high.
If – and it’s a big if – we slice through $94K on high volume, I won’t rule out a wick into the 80s. But I’m not planning to knife-catch. I’d rather miss the first 5% of a reversal than become Twitter’s next liquidation meme.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
Look, I get it. Sitting in stables while your favorite influencer screams “generational buying opportunity” is painful. But numb denial is worse. If you’re over-exposed, trim. If you’re under-allocated, set laddered bids and walk away from the screen. One friend of mine has an alert at $92K coupled with a standing order to force himself to leave the house when it triggers. Sometimes the best trade is touch grass.
And please, stop chanting halving hopium without context. Yes, supply drops, but demand has to show up. Right now, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust is logging net outflows for the first time since launch, and that’s after Larry Fink swore institutions were “just getting started.”
My Data-Driven Gut Feel
I’m bracing for a push into the low-$90Ks between now and mid-November, followed by a messy grind that frustrates both bulls and bears into year-end. A clean reclamation of $108.5K would invalidate the doom thesis. Until that happens, colour me skeptical.
Could I be wrong? Absolutely. Bitcoin loves to make fools of anyone who speaks in absolutes. But I’d rather sound paranoid today than write a cope thread tomorrow explaining why my “$120K by Halloween” meme aged like un-refrigerated sushi.
