I still remember the sticky July heat in 2016 when my phone buzzed with an alert from the old Blockchain.info app: “Hash Ribbons buy confirmed.” Back then, Bitcoin was limping along near $600, half the folks on Crypto-Twitter were still arguing about block size limits, and anyone with a S9 hooked up in their garage felt like a pioneer. Three months later, BTC cracked $1,000 and never looked back.
Fast-forward nine years. It’s 2025, the halving glow still lingers in the air, and—wouldn’t you know it—the Hash Ribbons indicator just printed its third buy signal of the year. If you’re new to this little on-chain gizmo, let’s break down why old-timers like me perk up whenever it flips from dark grey to hunter-green.
Here’s What Actually Happened
Early this morning, Glassnode pushed out a chart showing the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin’s hash rate finally crossing back above the 60-day MA. That crossover is the beating heart of the Hash Ribbons metric popularized by analyst Charles Edwards. When it turns green, it’s historically signaled the end of miner capitulation and the start of healthier network growth.
According to the data:
- The 60-day hash MA dipped to 611 EH/s in late April, its sharpest slump since the China exodus in 2021.
- The 30-day MA rebounded faster, bouncing from 595 EH/s to 628 EH/s over the last six weeks.
- That crossover printed a fresh green dot on June 13, 2025—Hash Ribbons’ third buy trigger this calendar year.
We’ve only seen a triple-signal setup twice before: 2019 (post-bear market chop) and 2023 (coming out of the FTX crater). Both times, Bitcoin went on to post triple-digit percentage gains within twelve months. No guarantee it’ll happen again, but my caffeine meter definitely spiked reading that chart.
Why Miners Matter More Than Most People Think
Here’s the thing: miners aren’t just random ASIC farms burning electricity—they’re the permanent bid for Bitcoin’s security model. When they’re hurting, they dump treasuries to stay alive. When they’re breathing easy, they hoard coins and expand facilities, sucking spot supply off the market. The Hash Ribbons tries to sniff out that inflection point.
I’ve spent enough nights on Discord with Alberta miners to know their pain threshold. Post-halving, breakeven electricity rates for mid-tier machines jumped from roughly $55k to almost $72k per BTC. We saw a 24-day stretch this spring where open-market prices sat below that line. Smaller outfits powered down, hash rate dipped, and the fear mongers crowed, “The network is dying!” Yeah, I’ve heard that tune before—back when Mt. Gox still controlled the tape.
What the mainstream headlines missed is that these shutdowns historically mark the final shake-out before fresh capital marches in. And right on cue, Marathon, CleanSpark, and several Kazakh giants announced bulk orders for Bitmain’s new S23 Pros last month. If they’re doubling down, it tells me they smell fatter margins ahead.
Connecting a Few Dots (and a Tangent About Taylor Swift)
Look, I’m not saying Taylor Swift single-handedly pumps Bitcoin, but it’s funny timing: her record-breaking Eras tour hits South America this week, and every time Swifties descend on city Wi-Fi the mempools clog like it’s 2021 NFT season all over again. Increased transaction fees pad miner revenue, quietly easing their cash-flow stress. Silly? Maybe. Relevant? Absolutely.
Pair that with:
- ETF inflows have netted >$5.6B since January, per BitMEX Research.
- M2 money supply is up 6.1% year-over-year after the Fed’s recent rate pivot.
- And sovereign accumulation rumors out of the UAE (hat tip to Nic Carter’s latest newsletter).
Stack enough little bullish breadcrumbs together and, well, you can see why the Hash Ribbons turning green feels more like confirmation than coincidence.
This Indicator Isn’t Magic—Here’s Where It’s Burned Me
I’d be lying if I said Hash Ribbons never led me astray. In March 2020, COVID panic smashed hash rate as Chinese hydro miners packed up early for the dry season. We got a premature green print, but price nosedived 40% before recovering. I bought that dip too early—nearly blew out my Bybit margin. Hard-earned lesson: combine on-chain signals with macro context, or risk getting steam-rolled.
Today’s macro isn’t exactly calm seas. Bond yields are swinging like a pendulum, and Gensler keeps throwing shade at anything with a token ticker. A single BlackRock ETF denial or an unexpected recession headline could still smack us back to the mid-$60k range faster than you can say “danksharding.” So yes, Hash Ribbons is flashing green, but I’m keeping dry powder ready.
Okay, So What’s the Play?
Here’s how I’m approaching it, feel free to front-run me:
- Layer buys from $77k down to $70k on any liquidity sweeps. I’d rather be early than perfect.
- Allocate 5-10% of the stack to quality miners—think MARA, CLSK—as a proxy bet on rising hash.
- Keep a trailing stop under the 200-day EMA (currently ~$68.4k). Protect the downside; sleep at night.
- Re-evaluate if weekly RSI pushes above 75. Overheated momentum plus summer doldrums can get nasty.
And for the DeFi degenerates: yes, you’ll see a swarm of “hash-backed” synthetic tokens pop up on Solana and Arbitrum. Ninety percent of them are vaporware. Ask for audited proof-of-hash revenue streams or don’t bother.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
If you’re a long-only HODLer, maybe you shrug: “Hash Ribbons up, down, who cares? I’ll check price in 2030.” Fair. But active managers watch miner capitulation because it historically front-runs macro cycle lows. In 2015, 2019, 2023—each buy signal preceded a multi-month uptrend with average returns north of 300%.
This third signal in 2025 is rare air. It suggests miners keep getting squeezed and rescued in shorter bursts, which can compress the accumulation phase and slingshot price faster when demand shows up. That lines up with the ETF liquidity gusher we’re seeing on traditional rails.
Parting Thoughts (and a Dose of Humility)
I’ve been wrong plenty. I thought SegWit2x would split the chain. I thought Elon would never dunk on Bitcoin’s energy use. I thought my 2017 tax bill was sorted until the IRS “love letter” hit my mailbox. Point is, there are blind spots everywhere. So while today’s Hash Ribbons flip gives me that nostalgic “summer-2016” buzz, I’m staying nimble.
“Markets don’t pay you for being right; they pay you for being less wrong than the crowd.” — an old prop-desk mentor of mine
Could Bitcoin rip to $120k by Christmas? Sure. Could a black-swan regulatory punch land and drag us back to $50k? Also on the table. For now, the network’s heartbeat says the patient is recovering, miners are back on the treadmill, and history whispers that good things tend to follow.
As always, stack responsibly, touch grass, and don’t trust flashy charts without doing your own digging. This space rewards conviction, and it punishes hubris in equal measure. See you on the mempool.
