Did the Weekend Rattle You Too?
I woke up Saturday to the kind of price alert that makes even the most battle-hardened OGs blink: Bitcoin slicing clean through the $100,000 floor. My phone looked like an emergency room monitor—red everywhere—and the usual chatter on Telegram slid from memes to pure panic. If you felt that knot in your stomach, you’re not alone. But I’ve been around since Mt. Gox, and every gut-punch dip tells a story worth reading.
Here’s What Actually Happened
The short version: heavy weekend selling pushed BTC from roughly $102K to a low just under $98K. That breach nuked the tidy ascending channel we’d been nursing since the March run-up. Our friend Astronomer—who’s been mapping this cycle with eerie accuracy—flagged the break below the «expected close» on X. He says we’re not done bleeding yet; another sweep of local lows could drag us toward the $95K handle before any real upside sticks.
Why should you care about weekend lows? Because crypto traders love symmetrical pain. Nine times out of ten, if Saturday prints a scary wick, Sunday or Monday comes back to gobble it up. I’ve seen it in 2017 with the China ban FUD, again in 2020 during the COVID rug-pull, and more recently in 2022’s Luna meltdown. Patterns don’t repeat, but they sure do rhyme.
That Trump-Brokered Ceasefire & the Sentiment Flip
Just as the market was licking its wounds, Donald Trump pops up with an «Israel–Iran ceasefire» tweet. Whether you love or loathe the guy, markets react to geopolitical headlines faster than you can say front-run. Within an hour, Bitcoin ping-ponged back to $106K, and Fear & Greed spun from a shriveled 34 to a perky 61—back in Greed territory.
Here’s where it gets tricky: that euphoric knee-jerk bounce is precisely what tempts rookie traders into buying tops. Astronomer called it out bluntly:
Buying higher now during high euphoric times … is a worse idea. Create good habits, create a solid plan, and stick to both.Couldn’t agree more. I learned that lesson the hard way in January 2018 when I chased ETH at $1,400. Spoiler: it went to $80 before I stopped seeing red in my portfolio tracker.
Zooming Out—A Veteran’s Lens on This Dip
Every cycle gifts us a pivotal retest zone. In 2013 it was $150. In 2017 it was $6K. In 2020 that magic number was roughly $10K. Those were the prices you bragged about buying once euphoria returned. In this cycle, my gut (and plenty of on-chain confluence) says the $95-97K band is that must-defend territory. We tag it, we scare off over-leveraged longs, and then the real markup begins.
Why those numbers? Let’s geek out for a sec:
- The 20-week EMA—which has been rock-solid support since December—currently sits at $96.4K.
- On-chain realized price for «new money» (coins younger than 3 months) clusters right at $96-97K, meaning that’s the average cost basis of fresh entrants. Market makers love to test that conviction.
- Weekend low liquidity pockets sit just below $97K. If I were a whale, that’s where I’d engineer one last sweep to reload.
Could we flash down to $90K? Sure. Black-swan geopolitics doesn’t RSVP. But if we do, I’ll be chewing my fingernails and buying—not mutually exclusive emotions.
My Personal Game Plan (Not Financial Advice, Just Battle Scars Speaking)
1. Set bids, don’t chase. I’ve laddered limit orders from $97,400 down to $94,600. If the market gifts me fills, great. If not, c’est la vie—I refuse to FOMO-market-buy.
2. Watch open interest like a hawk. The last dip flushed about $1.1B in leveraged longs on Binance alone. I want to see another $600-800M scythe before I declare bottom.
3. Keep tabs on stablecoin inflows. Whenever USDC and USDT balances on exchanges rise while price falls, that’s dry powder hunting bargains. We saw a 4.2% uptick Sunday night—promising, but not capitulation-level.
4. Avoid the Twitter echo chamber. When your feed flips from «Bitcoin is dead» to «100x alt season» in twelve hours, remember: algorithms reward extremes, not accuracy.
Quick Tangent: The Halving Ghost in the Room
We’re barely six months post-halving. Historically, the real vertical move begins 180–240 days after that supply shock. In 2020, BTC trotted sideways from May to October before ripping 4x into year-end. That timeline plants us squarely in Q4 this year. So if we dip now, I consider it a discounted ticket to the same rollercoaster.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
It’s tempting to treat every 5% candle like life or death. But overreacting is how wallets bleed. Here’s what I’ve noticed:
- Retail sentiment (TikTok, Instagram reels) lags price by at least a week. If you’re reacting to yesterday’s hype, you’re already exit liquidity.
- Geopolitical ceasefires rarely stick—keep one eye on crude oil and DXY. A dollar surge could pressure risk assets again, giving you a second bite at sub-$100K BTC.
- Altcoins are still underperforming—Bitcoin dominance printed a new 4-year high above 66%. Historically, that dominance spike cools after Bitcoin consolidates. Translation: buying BTC weakness now positions you for the eventual alt rotation later.
The Part Where I Admit I Could Be Wrong
Markets humiliate certainty. Maybe the weekend low of $97.8K was «it,» and we’ll never look back. If we rip straight to $120K next week, my bids remain untouched, and I’ll sulk for a minute before zooming out and reminding myself that paying $105K on a confirmed uptrend isn’t exactly tragic. Discipline beats precision.
Closing Thoughts—Steel Your Nerves, Draft Your Plan
I know it’s cliché, but zoom out on the weekly chart and draw a fat marker at $97K. That’s your psychological battleground. If we test it, be ready with dry powder and an exit strategy—before emotions hijack your cursor.
End of the day, bear markets don’t start with pundits screaming «bear market.» They start with exhaustion, not drama. Right now? I see drama, I see liquidations, but I don’t see systemic exhaustion. Until that shifts, I’m treating this as a mid-cycle shakeout—an unruly but familiar rite of passage for anyone hoping to still be here when Bitcoin writes its next all-time high.
Stay liquid, stay curious, and please—use a damn stop-loss.
