I still remember the night of December 16, 2017. I was hunched over a dusty Lenovo in a hostel kitchen in Chiang Mai, trying to convince the Wi-Fi to refresh Bitstamp’s order book. Bitcoin had just ticked above $20,000 for the first time, and the room broke into a spontaneous cheer—half travelers, half degen traders. Twelve hours later we were back under $17K, and the euphoria curdled into panic faster than the Thai milk tea on the counter. That whipsaw taught me two lessons that have served me well ever since: first, never let a single candle convince you the trend is over; and second, market makers love shaking loose hands before the real party starts.
Here’s What Actually Happened This Week
Fast-forward almost seven years and the numbers have a few extra zeros, but the rhythm feels eerily familiar. Bitcoin clawed its way back above $108,000 on Tuesday, flirting again with that stubborn all-time high of $111,800. On-chain volumes spiked 18% over the 24-hour window, and Coinbase printed its busiest Tuesday since early April, yet price stalled right where the order books thicken like molasses.
The stalemate has analysts scratching their heads—well, everyone except the ever-vocal Doctor Profit. If you’ve spent any time on Crypto-Twitter-turned-“X,” you’ve seen his threads. This week he laid out two scenarios:
“We’re standing in front of a breakout, one that has the potential to send Bitcoin into the $120,000–$150,000 zone over the next few months.” —Doctor Profit
The bullish thesis hangs on a textbook bull flag that’s been consolidating for 226 straight days. Historically, flags of this length precede 50%-plus moves once they pop. But, as Doc also reminded followers, market makers rarely hand out lottery tickets without a little pain first.
Now Here’s the Interesting Part—Two Roads Diverging at $113K
In my experience, when an asset hammers a level multiple times and can’t close above it, liquidity is pooling just beyond that line—right now around $113,000. If we punch through cleanly, shorts get steam-rolled and the next magnet becomes the round psychological $120K, followed by Fibonacci extension resistance at roughly $149,400. That’s the easy path, and honestly, it almost feels too easy.
The second road is messier but, paradoxically, healthier. Picture a quick wick above $113K—maybe a daily close at $114K—then a violent rejection that yanks us down to that juicy liquidity pocket between $90K and $93K. The CME gap down there (June 3 session, for the record) is still yawning open, and the market has an uncanny habit of filling those voids. A trip south would flush excessive leverage—funding rates have been hovering at a frothy 0.11% on Binance—and hand disciplined buyers a discount.
I can almost hear newcomers gasp: “Wait, you’re cheering for a 15–18% pullback?” Yeah, I kind of am. Because every major rally I’ve traded—2013, 2017, 2020—was prefaced by a heart-stopping shakeout that forced tourists off the bus. If we reset open interest now, we’re less likely to repeat May 2021’s cascading liquidations.
Why a Dip to $93K Might Be the Best Gift You’ll Get This Quarter
Let’s unpack the on-chain breadcrumbs. According to Glassnode, wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC added 23,400 BTC in the last 30 days—some of the heaviest mid-tier accumulation since October 2020, right before the run from $11K to $65K. Meanwhile, exchange balances keep sliding; we’re down another 1.8% month-over-month. Whales are parking coins in cold storage and yelling, “Wake me up at six figures.”
Then there’s the macro overlay. The U.S. M2 money supply has quietly expanded by $420 billion since January. Historically, every time M2 punches higher after a lull, Bitcoin rerates upward within six to nine months. It’s as if the market sniffs out future liquidity before Jerome Powell even hits ‘print.’ The correlation isn’t perfect, but I’d be a fool to ignore it.
Add the geopolitical bid—rising tensions in the South China Sea, eurozone stagflation—and suddenly a censorship-resistant, portable store of value looks mighty attractive to sovereign funds. I can’t name names, but a former colleague now at a tier-one prime broker told me they’ve onboarded four new state-linked entities in the past quarter alone, each sizing $100-$250 million Bitcoin tranches. Follow the big money; it rarely buys tops.
So Where Does That Leave Us Heading into Q4?
I won’t pretend I’ve got a crystal ball—I still own that scar from shorting the 2019 bear-market rally at $8,800—but the playbook looks something like this:
- Bullish breakout right away: we blast through $113K, retest it as support, and March/April style momentum sweeps us toward $150K inside 90 days.
- Shakeout first, moon later: we fake high, dump to $93K, fill the CME gap, scare Crypto-Twitter into posting doom memes, then resume the grind up—same $150K target, just delayed till late Q1 2025.
Either path ends at a similar destination; the difference is whether you can stomach a bloody pit stop. I’ve already set staggered bids from $94,500 down to $90,800. If they hit, great. If not, I still have a core stack I won’t touch until my teenage niece finishes college.
One last nugget: options data. Deribit’s 31 January 2025 calls at the $150K strike saw 3,200 contracts go through yesterday—premium wasn’t cheap at 0.075 BTC each. That kind of size usually isn’t retail chasing lottery tickets; it’s funds hedging upside exposure. The smart money’s positioning lines up with Doctor Profit’s sandbox.
So, have we truly outrun the ghosts of 2017? Maybe. Maybe not. But I can tell you this: Every time Bitcoin has gone sideways for over 200 days, the next directional move was anything but subtle. Keep your nerves iced, your position sizes sane, and remember—you don’t have to catch every wick to ride the bull.
