Remember 2017? I Sure Do.
I’ve been hustling around this market long enough to have the Mt. Gox scars to prove it, and XRP has always been the oddball at the reunion. Back in late 2017, when everything with a ticker and a Telegram group went parabolic, XRP ripped from a sleepy $0.20 to almost $3.84 in under a month. Everyone—my barber included—thought Ripple would have SWIFT begging for mercy by Easter. We all know how that ended: a brutal comedown, regulators grumbling in the background, and the dark winter of 2018-19.
Fast-forward to December 2020: the SEC slapped Ripple Labs with a lawsuit faster than you could say “unregistered security.” The timing—right before Christmas—felt like a lump of coal for the XRP army. Liquidity dried up, Coinbase delisted, and the token cratered to $0.17. I remember telling a buddy over eggnog, “XRP is basically roadkill until this court drama settles.” Turns out, even the jaded old guys are wrong sometimes.
Here’s What Actually Happened This Week
Friday morning, while most traders were still doom-scrolling macro headlines, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse jumped on a livestream and dropped a quietly explosive nugget:
“We’re withdrawing our cross-appeal. It’s time to put this chapter behind us.”No trumpet fanfare, no moon emojis—just a seasoned executive sounding ready to move on.
For context, Ripple won the major skirmish back in July, when Judge Torres ruled that programmatic XRP sales on exchanges didn’t violate securities law. The SEC filed an interlocutory appeal in August; Ripple counter-punched with its own cross-appeal. Garlinghouse’s move effectively takes Ripple’s counter off the table, betting the judge’s partial win is good enough and the finish line is in sight.
Markets reacted instantly. XRP jumped more than 3% within hours, sporting a wick from $0.585 to just shy of $0.605. Sure, that’s not the mind-melting 30% candles we used to brag about on r/crypto. But in a week where Bitcoin couldn’t decide if it’s a risk asset or a digital safe haven, that little pop meant something. By the New York close, aggregate spot volumes on Binance and Bitstamp were up roughly 28% compared with Thursday, according to Kaiko’s data feed.
Now, Why a 3% Pop Matters More Than It Sounds
I can already hear skeptics: “Three percent? Big whoop.” Fair, but zoom out. Since July’s legal victory, XRP has logged a choppy but persistent uptrend of higher lows—$0.47 → $0.52 → $0.56. Every dip keeps getting bought, and open interest on Bybit futures has quietly crept back above $600 million. When a headline about ending litigation sends spot buyers scrambling instead of margin shorts piling on, that tells me the order book’s tone is shifting.
More important is the psychological overhang. For three years, “But the SEC…” has been a default bear argument. Ask any market maker from Jump or GSR—you don’t want that uncertainty messing with enterprise clients and corridors. If Ripple is basically telling the SEC, “We’re good, you can keep yelling,” it kicks the can toward a final settlement or, at worst, a narrow fight over a few institutional sales. That’s night-and-day different from existential doom.
Here’s an anecdote: I was at Messari Mainnet in September, and a mid-sized OTC desk admitted they still require compliance sign-off on every XRP ticket. That red tape alone throttles liquidity. Rip it off, and slippage drops, spreads tighten, and suddenly XRP doesn’t feel like the black-sheep alt anymore.
What the Old Timers Are Watching Next
1. Relisting dominoes. Coinbase has been tip-toeing back into the water; Uphold never left. If this latest move signals the endgame, I expect Kraken, Gemini, and the U.S. arms of Binance to lean in harder. More venues equal deeper books—and yes, fatter candles.
2. On-demand liquidity (ODL) volumes. Ripple’s cross-border product saw remittance corridors in Mexico and the Philippines post double-digit growth even during the lawsuit. If banks feel safer parking XRP on balance sheets, ODL throughput could finally hit that long-promised hockey stick. Keep an eye on MoneyGram 2.0 rumors.
3. The next major resistance: $0.65-0.68. That range capped us in August and October. Flip it and we start talking about a run to the psychological $1.00—a level we haven’t touched (sustainably) since the Elon-Dogecoin mania of April 2021.
4. The ETF narrative spillover. If Bitcoin gets its spot ETF greenlit—BlackRock whispers are getting louder—every large-cap alt will ride the narrative tailwinds. XRP could finally graduate from “legal punching bag” to “regulated settlement token” in the same breath.
Don’t Forget the Bigger Picture
I’m not entirely sure about the macro backdrop. Rates are still elevated, and the Fed isn’t exactly singing kumbaya. Plus, we’ve got an election year brewing in the U.S., which historically injects weird volatility into risk assets. But here’s the kicker: regulatory clarity is the Holy Grail for institutions. If Ripple’s playbook survives, it offers the first court-tested framework for an altcoin to be something other than an unregistered security. That’s worth more than a quick scalp.
Quick tangent: Remember when EOS paid a $24 million settlement in 2019 and everyone thought that was a template? Turned out to be a one-off footnote. The XRP case, on the other hand, dragged through discovery, multiple rulings, and now these strategic retreat moves. It’s basically become the Marbury v. Madison of crypto—painful to watch but precedent-setting.
Where does this leave your portfolio? Look, I won’t tell you to ape into a green candle. But if you’ve got a speculative sleeve, allocating 3-5% to a large-cap alt with improving regulatory optics isn’t the craziest idea. Just set alerts at $0.55 and $0.68, so you don’t wake up liquidated because you forgot XRP can move 20% during Asian hours.
And hey, while we’re talking risk, keep in mind Ripple still faces civil suits and potential fines. A final judgment could mandate disgorgement on early institutional sales. That’s a hit to Ripple’s balance sheet, not necessarily XRP’s code or ledger, but perceptions spill over fast.
The Community Pulse
Scrolling through Crypto Twitter after Garlinghouse’s announcement felt like attending a family barbecue right after your cousin beats a traffic ticket. Lots of “Told you so!” and “This is just the beginning!” Personally, I’m more measured, bordering on jaded—yet even I felt a flicker of 2017-style optimism. The XRP army gets mocked for its cult vibes, but passion plus clarity often begets fresh money.
One final point: market structure is healthier than in 2017. We have derivatives venues like dYdX and GMX, plus better on-chain analytics. If XRP really catches a second wind, we’ll get cleaner distribution—not the manic pump-and-dump loops that left retail holding the bag last cycle.
As always, do your own research, use stop-losses, and keep a chunk of powder dry. The next headline could be another lawsuit—or a Coinbase relisting notice. Either way, volatility is the one thing I can guarantee.
