Is the market about to detonate or celebrate? That was the first question rattling around my head at 3 a.m. when I saw the alert: “$17 billion in BTC and ETH options expire today – largest of 2025.” I made an espresso, cracked open Deribit’s open-interest dashboard, and started picking through the numbers. What follows is the messy, caffeine-fueled trail of breadcrumbs I followed—and why I’m only cautiously positioning for a rally.
Here’s What Actually Expired
Deribit, which still clears roughly 85 % of global crypto options volume according to Skew, confirmed the headline figure: $10.4 billion in bitcoin options and $6.6 billion in ether options closed at 08:00 UTC. That’s roughly 40 % higher than the previous record set on 29 March last year. The put–call ratio heading into expiry sat at 0.78 for BTC and 0.63 for ETH, meaning calls (bullish bets) dominated, but not by a ridiculous margin.
I pulled the term structure curve in Genesis Volatility and noticed implied vols were already sagging from 64 % down to 57 % for front-month BTC contracts—classic pre-expiry IV crush. Options markets, in other words, were signaling complacency, not panic.
Wait, What About Max Pain?
This is where things got spicy. The so-called max-pain level—the price at which most options expire worthless—was $58 000 for Bitcoin and $3 050 for Ether. Yet spot was trading a good 6 % above those pins when I wrote this (BTC $61 400, ETH $3 240). Dealers are theoretically incentivized to drift price toward max pain so they can pocket premium. But do they always? Not really.
“Max pain is at best a directional hint, not a law of physics,”
Amberdata analyst Tony Stewart reminded me on Telegram. In other words, if spot momentum is strong, market makers will delta-hedge and ride the wave rather than heroically fight it.
The On-Chain Angle Most People Missed
Now here’s the interesting part: exchange net flows flipped negative 48 hours before expiry. Glassnode’s dashboard showed −11 700 BTC leaving centralized exchanges in one day, the biggest outflow since May 2024’s post-halving sell-off. That usually signals entities are moving coins to cold storage—hardly what you expect if everyone’s bracing for a dump.
ETH told a similar story. Ever since L2 fees collapsed below 4 gwei (thanks, blobs!), we’ve seen a steady migration of ETH to staking contracts. Yesterday added another 119 k ETH to Beacon chain. That’s bullish structural flow, plain and simple.
Yeah, But Macro Still Matters
I’ve noticed traders love to isolate crypto, but the macro backdrop refuses to be ignored. The U.S. 2-year yield slipped back under 4.3 % after Chair Powell’s quasi-dovish remarks this week. Dollar index (DXY) faded to 102.9. Risk assets have a green light for now. If yields spike next week on hot CPI, today’s expiry could end up being a blip. Keep that in your mental model.
What the Pros Said When I Pinged Them
• QCP Capital told me they rolled a chunk of their short 60 k BTC calls up to 65 k because “demand for topside tails is back.”
• Greeks.live noted that retail was net buyers of weekly 62 k calls—tiny notional, but it shows where the degens’ heads are.
• Paradigm flow last night was skewed 62 % to bullish call spreads, especially the 65/75 k BTC and 3.5/4 k ETH structures.
None of these desks sound like they’re front-running a crash.
So, Rally or Rekt?
I think the bull case edges out, but I’m not YOLO longing perp futures here. Historically, mega-expiries create a volatility vacuum. Once pinned strikes disappear, price can rip—kind of like yanking off a Band-Aid. We saw it 29 Dec 2023 (BTC +8 % in 48h) and again in March 2024. Yet there are counter-examples: September 2022’s expiry preceded a 12 % flush.
If you pressed me, I’d say 63 k BTC and 3.4 k ETH are possible within a week, provided macro stays friendly. My gut says we break higher late U.S. session once the expiry gamma unwind finishes. Still, I’m keeping tight stops—Asia loves a weekend rug-pull.
How I’m Personally Playing It
1. Sold some covered calls on spot BTC—65 k strike, next Friday expiry. IV premium was juicy enough for a short-dated income play.
2. Picked up cheap ETH 3.6 k May month-end calls (0.021 ETH each on Deribit) as a lotto ticket.
3. Parked fresh USDC in a 7-day vault on Ribbon Lend earning 8.9 % APY—dry powder if we dip.
Not financial advice, obviously, but that’s my skin in the game.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
If you’re mostly spot-long, the worst move right now is probably panic hedging after IV already compressed. You’d pay through the nose. Instead, monitor post-expiry price action. If BTC starts hugging 62 k with rising OI in perps, that’s confirmation bias for bulls. Conversely, a failure to reclaim 60 k by Monday could invite a nastier drawdown toward 56 k gap territory.
One more nugget: CME’s BTC options expiry is next Friday. TradFi quants often wait for that before committing capital. So today might just be Chapter One of a two-part drama.
Tangential Rabbit Hole: ETH/BTC Ratio
Quick detour. The ETH/BTC cross bounced from 0.052 to 0.054 this week. If ETH keeps outperforming—even marginally—expect the “rotational trade” narrative (alts following ETH, ETH following BTC) to cycle on Crypto Twitter. I wouldn’t fade that reflex—especially with Layer-2 season heating up (Blast mainnet TVL crossed $3 b yesterday, by the way).
Stuff I’m Still Puzzling Over
• Will ETF flows finally turn net positive again after a bleak April? Watch BlackRock’s IBIT daily prints.
• How much of the recent spot demand is actually basis-arb desks buying spot vs. shorting front-month futures? If basis collapses Monday, we’ll know.
• Are miners quietly unloading post-halving or hanging on for higher prices? Hashrate hasn’t dropped as much as feared—curious.
The Bottom Line
Options expiring don’t move markets—positions do. With calls outnumbering puts and on-chain flows trending bullish, I lean toward upside. But the trade isn’t binary. Manage size, respect stops, and remember that surviving another day in crypto is half the battle.
See you on the other side of expiry. And yes, I’m topping up the espresso stash.
