I still remember the night in May 2021 when my phone wouldn’t stop buzzing—old trading buddies, cousins who didn’t know the difference between a node and a knot, even my barber—everyone wanted in on the “dog token” that was apparently turning kids into millionaires overnight. That token was Shiba Inu (SHIB), and I’ll be the first to admit I dismissed it as just another meme-driven rocket ride destined to flame out. Turns out the joke was on me: SHIB punched a 43,000,000% gain from its August 2020 launch to its October 2021 peak. Wild stuff.
Here’s What Actually Happened This Week
Fast-forward to today, and the mood is… let’s say less euphoric. SHIB slipped roughly 2% over the last 24 hours and now squats at $0.00001150. That marks seven red daily candles out of the last eight. Blame it on rising Middle-East tensions spooking risk assets or simply on meme-coin fatigue, but the chart looks like it’s stuck in molasses.
One TradingView regular—goes by @ChartingChihuahua (yeah, the dog-themed puns never end)—flagged $0.00001100 as the line in the sand. He’s watching the daily 100-EMA there, which has acted like a trampoline twice since mid-January. Lose that, and we’re staring at the deeper support cluster around $0.00000980 where the 200-EMA and the May 2023 highs intersect. Hold it, and we could be talking about a mini-spring-loaded bounce back to $0.00001370—the March pivot.
Now Here’s the Interesting Part
The relative strength index (RSI) on the four-hour sits near 31. That’s knock-knock-who’s-there oversold territory. Last time RSI dipped this low—September 2023—SHIB pulled a sneaky 22% pop in four days. Patterns don’t repeat, but they sure do rhyme more often than my dad’s Dad-jokes.
Yet, seasoned traders know meme coins obey a different gravity. They’re whimsical, driven as much by Elon tweets, dog pictures, and Tiktok hype as by macro flows. So I always layer on-chain data over the charts. WhaleStats shows the top-100 Ethereum wallets added 1.2 trillion SHIB this week—roughly $13.8 million at current prices. When the big dogs scoop up tokens while retail capitulates, that usually pricks up my ears.
I’ve Seen This Movie Before
Back in 2017, Dogecoin bled for months—down 80% from the high—while Bitcoin flirted with $20k for the first time. Many wrote DOGE off as “dead.” Then January 2018 rolled around, volume spiked, and DOGE doubled in a week. The key was it had flushed weak hands right into major support. Today’s SHIB setup reminds me of that boring, sideways stretch… only this time the memecoin is backed by Shibarium, its own L2, and a burn mechanism that has torched 410.7 trillion SHIB from the original supply. That’s not just hopium; it’s tangible tokenomics tightening, however slowly.
What Could Flip the Switch
Three catalysts sit on my dashboard:
- Bitcoin Halving Afterglow: Historically, altcoins lag BTC by a couple of months post-halving. If the April 20 halving sparks the usual FOMO, SHIB could catch that second-hand adrenaline by June.
- Shibarium TPS Update: Lead dev Shytoshi Kusama teased a throughput upgrade to “double-digit TPS.” If that lands on time, watch for gas-fee savings narrative to resurface.
- Headline Risk Easing: A sudden cooling in Middle-East tensions (or at least, no escalation) might coax sidelined money back into high-beta plays like SHIB.
Of course, a rug-pull in any of those could shove us straight to the sub-$0.000010 handle. I’m keeping stop-loss orders tight—I learned my lesson during the Terra implosion when I thought Surely it can’t fall another 30%
. Spoiler: it did, and then some.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
If you’re nursing a bag from the late-February local top (around $0.00001525), you’re sitting on a paper drawdown of roughly 25%. That hurts, but it’s hardly catastrophic in meme-coin land where 50-70% retraces are Sunday brunch. The decision tree is simple:
- Bulls: Accumulate between $0.0000108–$0.0000112 with eyes on a relief rally to $0.000014.
- Bears: Fade into any bounce below $0.0000137, target the psychological $0.000010 flat.
- Fence-sitters: Wait for a confirmed reclaim of the 20-EMA ($0.0000124) before jumping in.
I can’t tell you which door to pick—anyone who says they’re 100% certain is either naïve or trying to sell you a course. But I can share how I’m playing it: a starter position at $0.0000111, 25% of what I eventually want. If it dips to $0.0000099, I’ll add another 35%. Final 40% only if on-chain burns accelerate notably (over 5B tokens/week) or we see daily closes back above the 20-EMA. That staggered approach caps my downside and keeps dry powder for confirmation.
Quick Tangent: Why I Still Care About Meme Coins
People ask why an old-timer like me even bothers with dog tokens. Simple: liquidity follows narratives. In 2020 it was DeFi yield farms, in 2021 it was NFTs and memecoins, in 2022 it was layer-1 wars. Wherever the crowds flock, spreads tighten, volume pops, and opportunity emerges—long or short. I’m not married to any ticker; I’m married to volatility.
Plus, meme coins are gateway drugs for newbies. They onboard the next generation who’ll eventually discover serious projects like EigenLayer or LayerZero. Dismiss them outright, and you miss the cultural pipeline that keeps crypto breathing.
This Part Still Confuses Me
I’ll admit, the burn narrative around SHIB sometimes feels like smoke and mirrors. Yes, 410T tokens gone sounds blockbuster, but the total supply still hovers just under 589T. Until burns scale exponentially—or Shibarium usage skyrockets—the inflation vs. deflation tug-of-war remains a head-scratcher. I keep spreadsheets tracking weekly burn addresses, and the pace is irregular at best. So I remain cautiously optimistic, not blindly bullish.
Wrapping It Up—But Opening It to You
To sum up, SHIB is hugging that $0.00001100 support like a lifeline. Lose it, and we visit last summer’s range lows. Hold it, and a playable bounce sits on deck. Personally, I’m nibbling, not gorging. The macro backdrop is shaky, and meme sentiment cycles faster than my streaming subscriptions.
But here’s where I turn it over to the community. Hop on Crypto-Twitter or the r/SHIBArmy subreddit and you’ll find die-hards, skeptics, and everyone in between. I stand somewhere in the middle: seasoned enough to respect downside risk, curious enough to entertain another meme-coin comeback.
Final thought: If I’ve learned anything since buying my first satoshi in 2013, it’s this—never confuse a good story with a guaranteed trade, but never ignore a story that refuses to die, either.
Stay nimble, stay skeptical, and above all, stay solvent. Catch you in the order books.
