Remember mid-October 2023, when everyone on CT was doom-scrolling and swearing they’d never open a trading chart again? Yeah, seems like a lifetime ago. Fast-forward four short weeks and SPX – the S&P 500 index that TradFi folks worship – has ripped a wild 16% off the lows. If you zoom in on just the last nine daily candles, we’re talking a clean 10% pop. And get this: a lot of us in crypto think memecoin mania actually helped fuel that risk-on vibe in legacy markets. Crazy? Maybe. But let’s walk through what we’re seeing on the ground.
Here’s what actually happened
On 20 October, SPX printed a gnarly wick down to 4,103 and Twitter turned / X turned into a live funeral. Since then, it’s been nothing but green candles and relieved GIFs. As I type, the index is hovering around 4,550, flirting with that psychological 4,600 level that rejected bulls back in August. My trading group’s groupchat is now split between “new ATH by Christmas!” and “brace for a face-melting rug.” I’m honestly somewhere in the middle.
What’s different this time is how aggressively the crypto corner has piled into pure-speculation plays. PEPE, DOGE, SHIB, FLOKI – the whole canine and frog zoo – have all posted double-digit gains in the same four-week window. FLOKI even printed a 72% weekly candle on Binance last Friday. When that kind of retail euphoria hits, TradFi quants notice the risk-on appetite and start chasing beta across the board. Coincidence? Maybe not.
Community voices: are memes really propping up the world’s biggest index?
@tedtalksmacro: “Can’t ignore the correlation right now. Options dealers are short gamma above 4,500, the same week DOGE open interest spiked 40%. Risk markets moving as one.”
@girlgone_crypto: “I thought it was silly season until I saw my normie cousin ask why ‘that pepe frog thing’ was pumping. Top signal? Or just the start?”
In my experience, when normies jump into memecoins, TradFi algos flag the broader risk backdrop as ‘greed’ and push even stodgy indices north. We saw shades of this in early 2021 when GME, DOGE, and SPX all mooned together. So yeah, the theory isn’t totally left field.
But everybody’s watching 4,600
Look, I’m a simple chart enjoyer: 4,600 on SPX has been the Maginot Line all year. We rejected there in August, again in September, and we’re basically tickling it now. The weekly RSI just poked above 63 – historically a danger zone for fake-outs. If we get a daily close above 4,600 with volume, momentum bros will tweet confetti GIFs and start chanting 4,800. But a harsh rejection here could drag the whole risk complex down, and that includes the turbo-charged memecoins we’re milking.
Question is: do we get the Santa rally or the Grinch dump? No one honestly knows, and anyone who says they do is selling a $999 mentorship course.
Why this matters for your bag (and mine)
If SPX rips clean through 4,600, Bitcoin tends to follow – historically showing a 0.6 correlation on 30-day windows. And when King BTC is green, altcoins (especially memes) outperform on beta. Last week, BTC only moved 4%, yet BONK on Solana shot up 98%. That amplification effect is real. But if SPX sneezes and drops 2%, alts can puke 20% in hours. Been there, wore the liquidation email.
I’ve noticed more retail funneling stablecoins into Bybit and OKX over the last ten days. Nansen’s wallets-of-interest panel shows a 12% uptick in fresh USDT deposits tagged ‘meme cohort’. That supports the thesis that crypto speculators are ready to lever up. If the macro tailwind stalls, those late longs get squeezed – and the domino effect could take SPX back to 4,400 or even 4,280, where the 100-day MA sits.
What are the OGs doing?
Reached out to a couple of battle-scarred traders in the Telegram groups:
“I’m treating 4,600 like a stoplight. Close above? I flip net long on tech and slam DOGE calls. Close below? I de-risk and farm Pendle yields.” – @rekt_ronin
“I’m nostalgic for 2020 cycle vibes, but I’m not buying frothy memes at 2am again. Give me some conviction alt L2 plays instead.” – @sugarbutter_eth
Personally, I re-entered PEPE last week at 0.00000107, but it’s a small position. My big focus is the SPX chart. If we lose 4,500 on a weekly basis, I’m swapping back to BTC and parking in stETH until the dust settles.
Tangential rabbit hole: election season, ETFs, and Nvidia flexing
Could we even be here without Nvidia’s monster earnings beat on 15 Nov? Probably not. Their 206% YoY revenue print basically shouted “AI trade’s not dead” and pumped tech across the board. That spillover made SPX look unstoppable. Add in the looming spot Bitcoin ETF approvals (BlackRock’s submission review window closes Jan 10th) and a U.S. election year historically favoring higher equities, and you’ve got a cocktail stronger than a Miami Bitcoin 2024 after-party margarita.
Still, Fed Chair Powell keeps dropping “higher for longer” soundbites, and the December 13th FOMC could easily throw cold water. If rates stay at 5.25-5.5% through Q1, risk assets need real earnings growth to justify these multiples. Memecoins… don’t exactly have cash flow, right?
So, what now?
I’m not here to shill hopium. We’re at an inflection point. SPX at 4,600 is the boss level. Crypto’s riding shotgun on the same narrative highway. I’ve got alerts set at 4,610 (breakout) and 4,480 (breakdown). Meanwhile, I’ll enjoy the meme circus, keep stops tight, and maybe mint another “this is fine” NFT for the culture.
Whatever happens, I’ll report back in the groupchat – coffee in one hand, New York open on the other.
