92% of the bids we logged between the Asia open and the Euro lunch bell were stacked above $109,000. That alone was the tell.
Wait, $109,476 Bitcoin? Let That Sink In
From where we sit—screens glowing, espresso cooling—seeing Bitcoin (BTC) grind down to $109,476 overnight and then rip back up felt almost scripted. I was shouting across the desk: “If the whales don’t defend $109k, we’re toast.” They did, and the bounce was textbook. We clocked a 6.8% intraday swing before New York even grabbed their oat-milk lattes.
Here’s What Actually Happened
Liquidity vacuum. Asia was thin because of the mid-week holiday, so one chunky sell wall at $110,200 sparked a cascade. But—this is crucial—the perp funding never flipped deeply negative. That means the pros weren’t leaning short, just fading retail panic.
On-chain, I’ve noticed three familiar cold wallets (we tag them “bluetooth,” “kraken-fin,” and “dojo-tiger”) soaking bids every $250 lower. Classic accumulation. Those addresses last showed up in June 2023—right before we rocketed 40% in three weeks. Déjà vu, anyone?
The Uniswap Rocket-Ship We Couldn’t Ignore
UNI printed a fat +22% in roughly eight hours. My intern asked if we’d missed the move. I told him: “Kid, the real game is whether $7.10 holds now.” That level has been our battle line since the summer doldrums. Why the pop? Two words: v4 leak. Somebody slipped screenshots of the upcoming hooks interface onto Discord around 01:00 UTC. Add a UniSwap Foundation tweet teasing fee-sharing, and boom—shorts BBQ’d.
But Is the Market Actually Healthy?
Honestly, I’m half-convinced this run is more short-covering than genuine spot demand. Yet the relative strength index on the four-hour chart never pushed into clown-town. That’s rare on a 20-plus-percent candle. It tells me there’s legit buying beneath the hood.
Side note—remember when Solana screamed 32% in a day last December and half of CT yelled “dead cat”? Same vibe. Within a month it doubled. History rhymes, my friends.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
If you’re holding dusty bags from 2022, today’s green candles can feel like sweet vindication. But please don’t chase vertical wicks. In my experience, you wait for a 38.2% fib retrace, then size in. For BTC that’s roughly the $106,400-$107,000 pocket. I’ve already laddered bids there—full disclosure.
For UNI, I’ll nibble if we base above $7.10 for two daily closes. If it nukes back under $6.50, I’m out faster than a VC unloading on Token 2049 hype.
Other Desk Chatter You Might’ve Missed
- CopperDesk’s OTC flow shows 39% of their week-to-date volume in stablecoin-to-ETH swaps—smart money rotating into beta, perhaps.
- An ex-Alameda quant in our Signal group claims Three Arrows’ liquidator treasury still holds 8,900 BTC that hasn’t moved since April. If that hits market we’ll all feel it.
- The CME basis popped to 9.6% annualized post-bounce. That’s hot but not frothy; in October’s melt-up we tagged 14% before blowing off.
So, What’s the Next Tripwire?
Macro. Friday’s US PCE print. Anything below 3.3% and the algos will treat it like free tequila shots. I’d tighten stops before that number. Also keep an eye on the DXY; a push above 107 could smack risk across the board.
We’re also tracking the long-dormant Mt. Gox tranche—137,000 BTC earmarked for distribution. Rumor says November is possible, but I’ll believe it when iFinex finally posts a statement that doesn’t read like legal oatmeal.
One Tangent Because I Can’t Help Myself
Did you see QuietWhale’s on-chain alert about a 14-year-old wallet moving 50 BTC to Coinbase? That always scares tourists, but nine times out of ten it’s some early miner paying capital-gains tax. Don’t overthink it.
Parting Thoughts From the Trade Pit
I’ve traded through Mt. Gox, the DAO hack, and the COVID crash. Today’s bounce doesn’t feel like a generational bottom, but it also doesn’t smell like exit liquidity. If BTC can close the week above $112,500, I’ll upgrade my stance from cautious-bullish to get-me-long-and-strong.
Meanwhile, keep some dry powder. Markets reward patience more than bravado—though a little bravado makes the floor chatter fun.
Bottom line: Respect the $109k floor on Bitcoin and the $7.10 line on UNI. Lose those and we’re back to staring at red candles and cold pizza.
