86,000 BTC—worth a cool $8.6 billion—changed hands on Binance in a single hour last night. That’s the kind of volume we only see when the big dogs are either loading the cannons or running for the hills.
Here’s What Actually Happened
Right after the New York close, spot books lit up across Binance, Coinbase, and our own OTC blotter. Somebody—or more likely, a syndicate—hoovered up coins at $101,200 and stacked resting bids all the way down to $98K. Our desk pinged half a dozen market makers; nobody claimed responsibility. Classic ghost whale.
The timing lines up with Myriad’s prediction market print: odds of BTC finishing July above $100K jumped from 58% to 67% in two ticks. We’ve seen Myriad front-run serious flows before—remember the March ETF approval trade? Same footprint, same urgency.
Now Here’s the Interesting Part
Deribit tells a slightly different story. Open interest on the July 26 $105K calls dropped 12% overnight, while the “oh-shit” $90K puts added 9%. Option writers are basically saying, “Sure, spot can flirt with six figures, but don’t get comfy.” We sold a sliver of vol into that skew—couldn’t resist.
Meanwhile, Glassnode’s exchange-reserve chart—the one we all keep on a second monitor—printed its lowest reading since December 2020. Coins are leaving exchanges faster than you can say “Mt. Gox unlock.” If the supply squeeze keeps up, shorts might discover religion real quick.
Why $100K Matters More Than You Think
Psych levels are mostly voodoo, but this one’s different. $100K is where macro funds get their mandates refreshed. We talked to a PM at Millennium who admitted the fund can only buy spot above that line. Under it, compliance calls it “speculative.” Over it, it’s suddenly “emerging store of value.” Gotta love paperwork.
Add in the quirky fact that MicroStrategy’s latest convertible note converts at $111K, and you’ve got a nice cluster of forced buyers if we push higher. No surprise Saylor’s posting laser-eyed selfies again.
But the Charts Are Throwing Shade
I’m not entirely sure about this, but the weekly RSI is printing a double top not seen since the 2021 blow-off. Every time we’ve hovered above 80 for two consecutive weeks, we’ve done a 25-30% retrace. If we repeat history, that means a nasty dip to $78K before any new highs.
On-chain, the realized price for short-term holders sits at $95,400. That’s where the newer crowd turns into panic sellers. A messy flush under that level could be the liquidity event big funds have been praying for.
The Desk’s War Story: Flashback to ’17
Quick tale: December 2017, BTC blasted through $19K, and everyone on Reddit was screaming $100K by New Year’s. We all know how that ended—35% drawdown in nine days. The difference now? There’s real derivative depth. Back then, getting short meant margining on BitMEX and hoping Arthur Hayes didn’t “system overload” you. Today, CME futures alone cleared $5B yesterday. Bigger playground, bigger swing sets.
So, Moon or Doom?
We’ve got a bullish prediction market, shrinking exchange reserves, and potential forced buys from macro funds. On the other side, options desks are quietly arming for a downside rush, and the chart’s screaming “cool off.” Feels like one of those knife-edge moments.
Ask yourself: Do you really want to be net short into an ETF rebalance window and a supply squeeze? But do you also want to YOLO long when the entire crypto Twitter echo chamber is already victory-lapping?
Our play: we’re long spot we grabbed at $98.2K, but we slapped on cheap $92K July puts as insurance. If we’re wrong, premium burns. If we’re right, we ride the meme rocket and sleep at night.
What Could Blow This Up?
Three things keep me up:
- Mt. Gox distribution—137K BTC still lurking. If trustees start dribbling coins in July, kiss the bid goodbye.
- Fed jawboning—Powell’s semi-annual testimony lands July 17. One hawkish line and risk assets seize.
- ETH/BTC rotation—If the SEC green-lights a spot ETH ETF sooner than rumored, alt season could siphon flows.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
If you’re the DCA type, the headline level doesn’t matter—just keep stacking. For swing traders, though, $100K is your new pivot. Stay above, bias long; dip below, switch to defense. And don’t underestimate the reflexivity: price goes up, funds get allocations, price goes up some more. The reverse is equally brutal.
Bottom Line
From where we sit on the trading floor, the market’s acting like a coiled spring. A decisive break above $105K, and July could look like 2019’s summer melt-up. Fail to stick the landing, and we might be bragging in December about how we bought the capitulation wick at $80K.
Either way, keep your stops sane, your caffeine intake obscene, and watch those whale wallets. They’re talking—you just have to listen.
