Did Anyone See This Coming?
This one erupted out of nowhere late Sunday. Donald Trump, still riding the campaign trail, jumped on Truth Social and blasted Elon Musk for floating an “America Party” on X back on July 5. Within 20 minutes of Trump’s post, Bitcoin cracked below $57,000 for the first time in nine days. CoinGlass liquidation data shows roughly $82 million in long positions got wiped in the hour that followed. I’ve seen tweets claiming it was a coincidence—honestly, I’m not entirely sure, but the timing is too clean to ignore.
Here's What Actually Happened
At 10:42 p.m. ET, Musk reposted his original July 5 thread explaining the “America Party,” saying it would be “socially moderate, fiscally responsible.” Trump shot back at 11:03 p.m., calling Musk a “pretend Republican” and warning followers that the Tesla CEO “can’t be trusted with our future.” It felt like classic Trump—blunt, personal, impossible to scroll past.
Less than five minutes later, BTC/USD ticked from $57,380 to $56,912 on Coinbase. ETH mirrored the move, dipping from $3,055 to $2,987. I’ve noticed these political outbursts get crypto traders nervous because neither man is shy about regulation talk. Remember when Musk’s 2021 tweets nuked Dogecoin? Same vibe.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
Markets hate uncertainty, and a Musk-Trump feud adds a brand-new flavor of it. Musk privately funded Bitcoin through Tesla’s balance sheet back in 2021, and he still holds roughly 9,720 BTC according to the latest 10-Q filing. Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign suddenly accepts crypto donations via Coinbase Commerce. That’s a combustible mix.
If the spat escalates, here’s the chain reaction I’m watching:
- Musk allies—largely tech-libertarian whales—could dump holdings in protest, short-term pain.
- Trump loyalists might retaliate by buying crypto to prove they’re more “pro-freedom.” Sounds silly, but capital still moves emotionally.
- Regulators love openings. I’m worried the SEC or CFTC jumps in with “market-manipulation” language if Musk tweets about Dogecoin during a campaign moment.
Put simply, we’ve got two of the loudest megaphones in the United States tossing grenades. Historically that translates into volatility, not direction.
Now Here's the Interesting Part
Price action wasn’t the only ripple. OpenSea recorded a 14% spike in Trump NFT trading volume after midnight. In my experience, those NFTs act like political yard signs—people grab them whenever headlines flare. Even stranger, Dogecoin held firm around $0.11, which tells me Musk’s retail base hasn’t hit the panic button.
Funding rates flipped negative on Binance for both BTC (-0.0061%) and ETH (-0.0058%) by 2 a.m. ET. That usually signals over-leveraged longs got flushed, opening the door for a “relief bounce.” I wouldn’t bet the farm, but I’ve taken small nibbles here in past cycles and done alright.
Tangential Thought While We’re Here
I keep thinking about Michael Saylor’s remark at the MicroStrategy World event last month:
“When politicians argue, Bitcoin just sits there with 21 million supply.”He’s not wrong, but intraday swings can still shake retail conviction. If you’re dollar-cost averaging, fine. If you’re on 20x leverage, maybe grab a coffee and rethink life choices today.
Could This Get Even Uglier?
Absolutely. Trump teased a “major policy speech” on digital assets for July 18 in Miami. Musk is reportedly booking a Spaces the same night to outline “America Party” fundraising via crypto rails. Two dueling livestreams? That’s algorithmic fuel for more volatility.
I think the real inflection point arrives if Trump promises to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler. Musk might counter with calls for open-source voting on-chain. Both ideas are catnip for different sides of Crypto Twitter. I’m not entirely sure who wins that narrative fight, but I know liquidity providers will be charging wider spreads.
What I’m Watching Next
• Bitcoin volume at the $56K handle—holds or breaks?
• CME futures gap from Friday at $58.2K; gaps love to fill.
• July 18 speeches—mark that on every calendar.
• Biden’s camp response. Silence so far, but a single comment could swing sentiment.
If we get a Trump-Musk truce (unlikely) or at least a cooling-off period, risk assets could snap back. Otherwise, expect choppy range-bound trade into the Fed’s July 31 meeting.
Wrapping Up—My Two Satoshis
I’ve traded through enough headline storms to know knee-jerk panic rarely pays. Still, ignoring this clash feels naïve. Keep an eye on open interest, tighten stops, and maybe scale orders at support levels like $55,200 (May low) and $52,800 (50-week MA). Personally, I’m 70% in cold storage, 30% dry powder. That lets me sleep even when billionaires go full WWE on social media.
