July 10, 2024 – 06:45 UTC
You Heard the Headline: S&P 500 Futures Just Printed Another All-Time High
S&P futures at 5,640, Nasdaq minis flirting with 20,000, and CNBC anchors grinning like it’s 1999. Everyone’s yelling, “Risk-on! Bitcoin to the moon next!” But when I zoom out, I get flashbacks of late 2019—right before the pandemic punched every chart in the face. Maybe I’m paranoid, but I’ve noticed markets rarely hand out free money just because traders are feeling cheeky on a summer Tuesday.
Now Here’s the Interesting Part: Bitcoin Didn’t Follow the Script
With TradFi indexes ripping, you’d expect the orange coin to, at minimum, reclaim $63k—its May pivot. Instead, we closed yesterday’s candle at $57,980 on Coinbase, with open interest on Bybit actually falling 3% during the pump. That divergence is setting off my contrarian alarm bells. In my experience, when Wall Street is euphoric and Bitcoin yawns, something’s cooking beneath the surface.
Why Q3 Gives Me the Heebie-Jeebies
Seasonality isn’t gospel, but let’s not pretend it’s irrelevant. Since 2014, BTC has averaged a -7.4% return in Q3. Last year we were saved by the BlackRock ETF rumor mill. This year? The spot ETF is already trading, and inflows have flatlined to an anemic $42 million last week, according to CoinShares. So what’s the new catalyst? ETF hype can’t get married twice.
Liquidity: The Quiet Culprit Nobody’s Yelling About on X
Remember March 2020 when the Fed’s balance sheet ballooned faster than a meme-coin chart? That party’s long over. Reverse repo usage has dripped below $500 billion for the first time since 2021, and the Treasury’s refilling its account like a teenager raiding the fridge. Net-net: dollars are quietly exiting the system. When dollars disappear, leveraged crypto bets suddenly look like luxury yachts during a hurricane—pretty but pointless.
Okay, But Didn’t MicroStrategy Just Buy More?
Yes, Saylor added another 12,000 BTC at an average of $65,800. Great headline, lukewarm signal. Historically, MicroStrategy purchases have a 50/50 track record of predicting short-term upside. I did the boring spreadsheet work so you don’t have to: the median 30-day return after a Saylor buy is -1.2%. In other words, it’s not the rocket fuel Twitter thinks it is.
Sentiment Check: The Fear & Greed Index Is Lying to You
Today’s Crypto Fear & Greed shows 60 (Greed). But open TikTok and you’ll see influencers recycling February’s “$100k by Christmas” meme. Meanwhile, Glassnode’s Realized Profit/Loss Ratio turned negative on July 8. Translation: more people locked in losses than gains this week. When price stalls and holders capitulate quietly, that’s usually the prelude to either a flush or a shock pump. My money’s on the former—in the short run.
What the Options Market Is Whispering
I spent last night digging through Deribit’s skews (yes, I’m fun at parties). The 25-delta put/call skew for August just moved to +7%, the highest since the Luna implosion. Traders are paying up for downside protection into late summer. That’s not exactly a vote of confidence for the breakout crowd.
But Wait—Hashrate Just Hit a Record, Doesn’t That Matter?
Sure, network security has never been stronger. Yet miners are simultaneously dumping more coins than they mine, according to CryptoQuant’s Miner Outflow Multiple spiking to 1.4 yesterday. If the guys producing the asset are hitting the bid, why should I FOMO at $58k?
The Counter-Counterpoint I Can’t Ignore
Look, I’m skeptical—not blind. FASB accounting changes kick in for U.S. corporates this December, letting companies mark BTC at fair value rather than impairment-only. That could open the floodgates for balance-sheet buys in Q4. Add the U.S. election drama—if the GOP leans pro-crypto—there’s a plausible moon shot setup later this year. Just probably not in the next six weeks.
So, What Am I Actually Doing?
I’m selling covered calls at $70k for September expiry and keeping a stink bid at $49,500. If either hits, fine. If neither, I’ll happily collect theta while everyone else argues on Reddit.
I’m also rotating a sliver of my stables into ETH staking—yields are boring but predictable. Call me unadventurous; I call it dry-powder preservation.
If I’m Wrong, Here’s the Canary to Watch
Keep an eye on $63,200. That was the breakdown level on June 24 when open interest nuked $800 million. Reclaim that with volume—and keep it for 48 hours—and I’ll tear up this article, tweet a mea culpa, and chase momentum with the rest of you degenerates.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
Blindly hitching crypto wagons to equity bubbles is lazy analysis. Correlations break at the worst moments—March 2023 SVB fiasco, anyone? The macro may look rosy, but Bitcoin’s microstructure feels fragile. Manage risk like a grown-up: scale in, set stops, and accept you’ll never buy the exact bottom.
Let’s Land This Plane
Could Bitcoin still sidestep seasonality and ride Wall Street’s coattails? Absolutely. Do I think that’s the high-probability trade right now? Not a chance. S&P making record highs while dollars drain from the system reeks of late-cycle theatrics. I’m positioning as if a Q3 gut-check is more likely than a breakout. If I’m right, we’ll get juicy entries for the inevitable year-end narrative. If I’m wrong, well, that’s what stop-losses are for.
As always, this isn’t financial advice—just one skeptic’s two sats.
