Stop scrolling—Doge just threw us a curveball. Late Tuesday night I was halfway through a bowl of ramen when my Telegram started blowing up with the same link: a 38-minute YouTube rant from a pseudonymous technician who calls himself Cantonese Cat. Before I’d finished the broth, the guy had walked me through six different time frames, a dusty Adam-and-Eve bottom, and a Fibonacci ladder that tops out at—wait for it—$4.13 per DOGE. I spent the next three days replaying the video, checking his math, digging through on-chain metrics, and DM-ing a couple of market-makers who actually move DOGE size. Here’s the rabbit hole I fell into—and why I’m not dismissing the $4 talk as pure hopium.
Here's What Actually Happened
Backstory first. Dogecoin has been stuck between roughly $0.12 and $0.23 since December 2023—six months of sideways that feels like six years in crypto time. Cat argues this isn’t a graveyard but a compressed spring. He points to:
- Six consecutive inside bars on the monthly, all nesting inside November’s skyscraper candle.
- A rising 20-month simple moving average currently hugging $0.1737; price dipped under it but the slope is still up.
- No meaningful sell-side volume on either Binance or Coinbase since early April—daily OBV is basically a flatline.
I pulled up Binance perpetuals to sanity-check him. He’s right: daily sell volume has cratered to levels we last saw during the July 2023 reversal. Spot-desk trader I know at QCP sent me a screenshot of their internal heat map; bids under $0.15 are thin, but asks from $0.22 up to $0.28 are even thinner. In other words, supply has left the building.
Why Cantonese Cat Thinks $4 Isn’t Crazy
The Cat’s core claim hangs on a classic cup-and-handle that began back in May 2021. The 2022–24 bear market carved the bowl, last autumn’s spike was the first thrust of the handle, and the present drift is apparently the reset before act two. If price can chew through the 0.5 and 0.618 fibs of that entire bear range—roughly $0.25 and $0.33—his ladder spits out targets at $1.60, $2.26, and $4.13.
Now here’s the interesting part: those fib extensions line up almost perfectly with the psychological round numbers every DOGE maxy tweets about—$1, $2, $4. Ironically, serious TA guys usually hate psychological levels, but when quants and retail start staring at the same price zones, fire tends to meet gasoline.
“The trend is your friend, and the trend is up.” —Cantonese Cat
To test his thesis I ran DOGE through LookIntoBitcoin’s new memecoin tab. The MVRV sat at 1.12 earlier this week—still below the 1.5 level that has marked local tops since 2019. Translation: history says we’re not overbought yet.
What My Own Charts Are Whispering
I’m more of an on-chain nerd than a pattern guru, so I fired up Glassnode for confirmation—or refutation. Three metrics jumped out:
- Realized price is $0.083, well below spot. That means most buyers are now in profit, which usually raises the risk of distribution. However, realized profit/loss ratio has flipped negative for four straight days, hinting sellers may already be tapped.
- Exchange reserves have bled 770 million DOGE (≈$132 M) since March 15th. Coins are migrating into self-custody—never bearish in my book.
- Average transaction transfer value has doubled to $6,400 in the last month. Bigger tickets signal whales moving, not vending-machine gamblers.
Put those together and I get a picture of stealth accumulation. The chain doesn’t show explosive demand yet, but it does suggest the supply overhang—the thing that killed every rally attempt in January—is largely gone.
Flashback to the 2021 Mania
Tangent time. I was running a small OTC desk during Doge-day 2021 when Elon Musk’s SNL appearance was supposed to send DOGE to the moon. What happened? Retail tried to front-run the hype, whales sold into the pump, and liquidity pockets disappeared faster than toilet paper in 2020. Price nuked 45% in 24 hours. The key lesson: parabolic moves fail when supply is lurking overhead. This time, at least on-chain, the cupboards look bare.
Reasons to Stay Skeptical
Look, I’m not going to polish the moon boots yet. Three rain clouds still on my radar:
- Macro liquidity took a hit after last week’s FOMC dot plot. If DXY rips north of 106 again, risk assets will feel it—memecoins most of all.
- DOGE has zero monetary policy. Its 5 billion-coin annual issuance (~3.4% inflation) is tolerable when price is running, unbearable when it stalls.
- Network activity is stagnant. Daily active addresses hover near 66 k (vs. 130 k at the 2021 peak). A markup phase without fresh users is a house built on sand.
So yes, I buy the technical coil story, but only if volume shows up to prove new hands are actually willing to chase it.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
If you’re already sitting on a DOGE bag you refuse to sell because “muh memes,” Cat’s six-month range gives you clean invalidation. A decisive weekly close under $0.14 probably means the coil snapped the wrong way. Otherwise, game theory says the path of least resistance is up. For fresh entries, I’m watching that $0.25–0.28 band like a hawk; break and retest there would be my cue to size in.
I know some of you will ask, “Why not just punt the perpetuals?” Fine—just remember open interest wiped to $230 M last week, the lowest since February. You’ll be paying 0.01% funding every eight hours to sit in a chop box. Personally, I’d rather pick up spot and forget about it for a quarter.
So, Are We Really Going to Four Bucks?
Short answer: possibly, but I’d carve it into phases.
- Phase 1: $0.33 (reclaim the 0.618 fib and monthly cloud base).
- Phase 2: $0.70–$1.00 (2021 dead-cat shelf and overwatched round number). Expect headlines on CNBC and your cousin asking how to buy DOGE on Robinhood.
- Phase 3: $1.60–$2.30 (Cat’s first two extensions). That’s a 10× from today—crazy but not unprecedented in alt-season.
- Phase 4: $4.00-ish. This assumes global crypto mcap slices through $5 T and memecoins capture another sympathy bid. Strictly a late-cycle play in my opinion.
If we stall anywhere along that ladder, I’ll hit the eject. No shame in taking profit before the music stops—ask anyone who round-tripped SHIB in 2021.
Final Thoughts While the Coffee Cools
I’ve noticed something funny: the louder crypto Twitter screams “Doge is dead,” the quieter the order books get on the ask side. That disconnect usually precedes a face-ripper move. If Cat is right, the set-up is eerily similar to July 2023 and February 2024—both times boasting the same low sell-side volume he highlighted.
Could this all backfire? Absolutely. Maybe the coil unravels, my 20-month MA cracks, and we revisit $0.08. But after three days of kicking the tires, I think the asymmetry is too tempting to ignore. Buying doom on DOGE historically pays; scoffing at memes rarely does.
The trend, as the Cat loves to repeat, is still our friend. Until the chart proves otherwise, I’m happy to ride shotgun and see where the next leg takes us.
