While traders were sleeping and doom-scrolling CPI memes, three tickers on my screen—COIN, the as-yet-unlisted Circle play, and IREN—started behaving like caffeinated squirrels. I’ve been at this for more than ten years, and any time a trio of U.S. crypto names decouple from the wider equity malaise, my spidey sense kicks in.
Here's What Actually Happened
Tuesday’s New York session opened with the S&P futures flat and the dollar index pushing 103.5. Nothing to write home about. Yet Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) printed an 8.4% gap up in pre-market, clawed back a bit, and still closed the regular session up 6.1% at $89.70—on volume that was 32% above its 30-day average. Over in miner-land, Iris Energy (NASDAQ: IREN) ripped 11.2% intraday before settling up 9.6% at $7.81. And the chatter around Circle’s rumored SPAC re-entry sent every dark-pool algo hunting for exposure to USDC’s back-office kingpin.
Now here’s the interesting part: This move came without a corresponding surge in spot Bitcoin. BTC spent the day grinding between $29.2K and $29.5K—yawn. When the underlying asset stays sleepy and its proxies wake up, something’s brewing under the hood.
Why I’m Paying Extra Attention to COIN
I remember the 2017 run-up when the only way TradFi funds could express crypto exposure was through the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust premium. Fast-forward to 2023 and Coinbase has become the liquidity rail for U.S. institutions. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust filings cite COIN as their surveillance-sharing partner
, and that line alone makes compliance desks breathe easier.
In my experience, when the lawyers finally get comfortable, the real money follows within two quarters.
Look at the numbers: Coinbase’s most recent 10-Q showed $1.2 billion in transaction revenue, but the sleeper stat was the $124 million they booked from custody services. That’s sticky, high-margin business. If ETF approvals land in Q1 next year—as Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas keeps hinting—those custody lines become the crown jewels. So when COIN trades like an options play on SEC rule-making, I’m not shocked.
Circle: The Ghost Listing That’s Already Being Priced In
Circle isn’t listed—yet. Their previous SPAC with Concord fizzled in late 2022, but last week I caught wind of term-sheet chatter in the Midtown rumor mill: another blank-check vehicle is circling (pun entirely intended). If that gets inked, USDC’s market cap—currently hovering around $25 billion after a brutal post-SVB flight—could reclaim ground against Tether’s behemoth. Investors buying anticipation have been grabbing Silvergate bankruptcy claims and small-cap payment rails as synthetic Circle plays. It’s messy, but that’s where alpha likes to hide.
IREN’s Hashrate Gambit
Iris Energy is a funny one. When I flew to Vancouver in 2020 (back when you still had to show a negative PCR test to buy coffee), the founders were already talking about 100% renewables-powered mining. Most of us shrugged—ESG wasn’t priced in. Now, every pension consultant I talk to asks, Is the miner green?
IREN’s latest 9.1 EH/s hashrate comes almost entirely from hydro in British Columbia. When Bitcoin’s difficulty adjusted up 6.2% last week, the miners with cheap, clean power were the only ones who didn’t flinch.
Their June operations update also flashed $50 million in unrestricted cash and zero debt maturities until 2026. After the Core Scientific and Compute North blow-ups, balance-sheet clarity is golden. Toss in the fact that IREN’s fleet efficiency is sub-25 J/TH, and you’ve got a miner that can survive another halving without pawning the ASICs.
Connecting the Dots: Liquidity, Regulation, and Old-School Fear
So why the sudden bid? A couple of theories:
- ETF positioning: The SEC delayed the Ark/21Shares decision again, but every delay reads like a soft ‘yes’ to macros. Funds front-run approvals via the only US-listed crypto rail they can actually buy—COIN.
- Dollar doldrums: The DXY stalled, creating a brief risk-on window. Equity quants hit the high-beta buckets, and crypto stocks sit at the top of that list.
- Hashrate migration fears: Kazakhstan’s latest electricity surcharge pushed miners back toward North America, making renewable-heavy names like IREN prime beneficiaries.
Still, I’ll be honest—the Circle excitement puzzles me. I get the fundamental story, but until we see an S-1, this is smoke, not fire. My plan is to track stablecoin flows on Dune dashboards; if USDC minting reverses its six-month bleed, then I’ll lean in.
What the Old Cycles Taught Me
Back in 2013, I watched BTC China pump sovereign-yield rumors only to implode when the PBoC pulled the plug. The lesson: proxy trades move first, but they also unwind faster. If COIN’s RSI screams overbought while Bitcoin is still grinding, don’t be the last liquidity taker.
On the flip side, in the Covid crash of March 2020, MicroStrategy didn’t start its legendary leverage loop until six months after BTC bottomed. Sometimes the equity laggard becomes the long-term winner. The trick is gauging whether today’s move is front-running or just FOMO.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
If you’re sitting on the sidelines waiting for macro clarity—newsflash—that bus isn’t coming. The Fed dots will stay messy, China’s credit impulse will yo-yo, and somebody in Washington will tweet about banning gas stoves again. Meanwhile, these crypto equities are quietly re-rating on real business pivots:
- Coinbase is morphing from trading venue to regulated plumbing provider.
- Circle wants to be the Fedwire of stablecoins.
- Iris Energy is snagging stranded hydro that the grid can’t absorb.
In my book, that’s thesis-driven value creation—not just speculative froth.
Loose Ends and What I’m Watching Next
1. SEC vs. Coinbase status conference on September 7—any hint of a settlement could add another 15-20% to COIN overnight.
2. USDC supply on-chain: If the curve bends up for two consecutive weeks, Circle rumors get teeth.
3. Hashprice post-halving: IREN’s cost basis hovers around $17K per BTC; after April 2024, that’ll jump. I’m modeling a $24K break-even—still survivable, but tight.
And because I can’t resist a bit of speculation: If the Fed signals even a baby dovish pivot in December, these three names could front-run the next crypto cycle before Bitcoin breaks $35K. It wouldn’t be the first time equities sniffed out the turn six months early.
Disclosure: I hold a small options position in COIN and a basket of BTC miners, including IREN calls. No Circle exposure—yet.
Strap in, keep your stops tight, and remember what the great Arthur Hayes likes to say: Wen volatility? Always sooner than you think.
So, Where Do We Go From Here?
I’d love to tell you I’ve got a crystal ball, but after four bear markets, all I have is pattern recognition and a healthy respect for liquidity. My gut says these moves aren’t one-day wonders. But I’ve been wrong before—remember my 2018 BCH long? Yeah, let’s not talk about that.
For now, I’m keeping Coinbase on the core watchlist, scanning for any credible Circle listing docs, and monitoring IREN’s energy contracts. As always, stay nimble, question your own bias, and never confuse a screen-brightening green candle with risk-free return.
See you in the order book.
