I was halfway through my first espresso of the day when my phone buzzed with a TradingView alert: BTC pushed above $109,000. I blinked, took another sip, and—like clockwork—watched the candle slip back into the $108K range before I’d finished the cup. If you’ve been glued to the charts as obsessively as I have, you know that tiny roller-coaster feeling in the pit of your stomach. The question gnawing at all of us right now is simple: Are we heading straight for a shiny new all-time high, or does Mr. Market want one more nasty shakeout to $92K?
Here’s What Actually Happened
Let’s start with the cold numbers because they rarely lie. According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin printed an intraday high at $109,116 on mild Monday volume—about $24 billion in 24-hour turnover, roughly 12 % below its 30-day average. Despite a modest sell-off, BTC is still camped above $108,000 as I type. The seven-day volatility index on Deribit has dipped under 45 %, the lowest since early April, while funding rates on Binance Perp remain positive but muted at roughly 0.014 %. In plain English: the market is coiled tight.
Enter Doctor Profit—a pseudonymous analyst who’s been charting crypto price fractals since back when BitMEX’s ‘REKT’ tweets were still funny. He sees only two realistic movie scripts from here:
- A textbook bull flag breakout that catapults BTC to the $113K-$114K zone, kisses a brand-new all-time high, then cliff-dives to the infamous $92K-$93K CME gap before ricocheting to $120K.
- A no-nonsense straight-through rally that steamrolls past $113K and never looks back, grinding directly toward $120K and potentially $130K.
Why $113K Feels Like a Magnet
I’ve noticed that every time BTC stalls near a round number, on-chain metrics start flashing like carnival lights. Glassnode’s “Realized Price” for short-term holders currently sits around $102,700. That’s well below spot, suggesting most of the short-term crowd is in profit and not particularly panicked. Meanwhile, the long-term holder SOPR (spent output profit ratio) is poking above 1.1, hinting that old coins are being spent at a premium—but not dumped en masse.
So why the obsession with $113K? Doctor Profit points to visible liquidity clusters on TensorCharts: there’s a fat order wall at $113.4K, another smaller one at $114K. Market makers love snagging those stops, and Bitcoin rarely refuses an easy snack. In my experience, whenever we see equal highs just above the prior ATH, it’s almost like waving a red cape in front of a Spanish bull.
So, Did the 80,000 BTC Wake-Up Call the Top?
Remember that headline about a dormant Satoshi-era wallet suddenly moving 80,000 BTC? Crypto Twitter exploded faster than you can say “Mt. Gox.” CNBC even squeezed the story in between AI-chip hype segments. But Doctor Profit shrugged it off, calling it most likely an over-the-counter (OTC) shuffle between a private whale and an institutional or governmental counter-party.
“These coins haven’t hit exchanges, so there’s zero spot-sell pressure—chill.” – Doctor Profit, Telegram channel, 07:22 UTC
I find that argument convincing. On-chain sleuths over at Arkham Intelligence show no significant uptick in exchange inflows corresponding to that transfer. It’s basically a giant game of musical chairs—but played inside a cold wallet room.
The CME Gap That Refuses to Die
Crypto veterans know the phrase “gaps love to get filled” almost as well as we know Elon’s Twitter antics. There’s a gap on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange chart between $92K and $93K, left open during a manic Friday pump when the institutional desks were offline. Historically, 86 % of CME gaps under 10 % in size are filled within 30 trading days. That stat comes courtesy of Skew Analytics’ database.
Sure, statistics aren’t destiny, but they do stack the odds. If BTC spikes to a quick ATH and the perps go turbo-long, derivative funding could blow out to 0.15 % or higher—ripe conditions for a brutal liquidity hunt straight into that gap. If that happens, I’ll be adding aggressively. I’ve got stink bids resting at $93,300, just above the midpoint of that pocket.
Macro? Yeah, It’s Boring This Week
One reason volatility has nose-dived is the rather empty macro calendar. FOMC minutes drop Wednesday, and US initial jobless claims hit Thursday, but neither event historically jostles Bitcoin more than 1 % intraday unless one of them is a total shocker. As of now, Fed Fund futures are pricing only a 6 % chance of a June rate hike. Translation: dollar liquidity should stay stable, and the DXY is snoozing under 105. That’s a tailwind—or at least not a headwind—for risk assets.
I keep one eye on the Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVOL), now scraping 41. A sub-50 BVOL paired with low macro fireworks usually precedes a sharp expansion move. It’s the classic ‘quiet before the storm’ cliché, but clichés become clichés for a reason.
What the Options Market Whispers
Deribit’s June expiry skew is leaning bullish again. The 25-delta call skew sits at +5 %, while open interest shows a chunky cluster of calls at the $120K strike, totalling 9,400 BTC. On the put side, the $90K strike holds a more modest 4,100 BTC. When I see that kind of imbalance, I usually interpret it as smart money preparing for either a melt-up past $113K or a single savage flush that never breaches $90K.
One other tidbit: Implied volatility for the June 28 expiry dropped to 48 % this morning, its lowest point since February. If you believe in the big move thesis, buying IV down here is like grabbing concert tickets before the band blows up on TikTok.
Could the Halving Hangover Finally Fade?
It’s been six weeks since the halving rerouted miners’ revenue streams. Hashrate dipped 3 % immediately after but has since rebounded to 633 EH/s, according to Hashrate Index. That may seem nerdy, but it matters: stable hashrate means miners aren’t mass-dumping coins to keep the lights on. Combine that with the fact that daily issuance fell from 900 BTC to 450 BTC, and you’ve got a supply cliff still working its magic beneath the surface.
My Cheat Sheet for the Next 72 Hours
Here’s the simple mental flowchart I’m using, scribbled on the whiteboard by my desk:
- If BTC closes a daily candle above $113,500 with volume north of $35 billion, I expect a fast fill of $114K-$115K liquidity and then a decision point.
- Should funding rates spike past 0.10 % and open interest balloon by >10 %, odds favor a flush to the CME gap—welcome to $92K.
- If instead we grind higher on tame funding (<0.05 %) and rising spot volumes, I’m mentally upgrading the straight-shot scenario to $120K+.
Could it all go sideways, coil for two weeks, and drive us nuts? Absolutely. That’s crypto. But with BVOL this low, I doubt we’ll stay in this tight a range much longer.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
If you’re a long-term HODLer, the granular levels probably don’t change your daily routine—other than deciding whether to tweet laser eyes or crying-face emojis. But if you’re managing active positions (like me), recognize that liquidity is king in both scenarios. Keep dry powder ready for a dip to $92K, but don’t be the person who rage-quits if price moons without you. Missing a move stings less than shorting a freight train.
Also, watch altcoin beta. Historically, Ether and higher-beta L2 tokens lag the initial BTC burst but then catch up once Bitcoin cools. If we go straight to $120K, I suspect ETH punches through $6,000 within days. On the other hand, a 15 % BTC correction tends to bleed altcoins double. Plan your risk accordingly.
Final Thought Before I Refill My Coffee
Markets aren’t moral; they’re mechanical. Right now the gears are ticking quietly—almost too quietly. I think Doctor Profit’s two-path thesis nails the vibe: either we spike for liquidity, flush, and reset, or we bulldoze resistance in one clean sweep. Personally, I’m leaning 60 % toward the bull-flag-and-flush route, if only because the gap math is compelling and I love snagging bargains. Still, I’ve got a small moon-bag ready for an impulsive breakout. After all, Bitcoin’s favorite pastime is humiliating the maximum number of traders in the minimum amount of time.
Whatever happens, I’ll be right here—watching the tape, sipping that second espresso, and probably tweeting too many chart screenshots. Stay safe out there, and remember: Always size your bets so tomorrow’s price action won’t ruin your day.
