So, are we really doing this again?
Every few months, the XRP Army busts out the party hats because a new chart pattern supposedly screams “rocket ship.” This week’s excuse comes courtesy of analyst Egrag Crypto, who says XRP has “completed its bearish retest” after dipping below the psychological $2 line and is now marching toward $2.65. Everyone on CT (crypto-Twitter, if you’re new) is pumping fists, but I’m cocking an eyebrow. Have we learned nothing from the last dozen failed breakouts?
Here’s what actually happened (as far as I can tell)
According to Egrag’s latest TradingView post, the altcoin kissed the lower boundary of a multi-year ascending triangle, bounced, and—voilà—bearish retest complete. He points to:
- An RSI pivot near 40 on the three-day chart (historically a launchpad for XRP, supposedly).
- Volume tapering off, which chartists love to interpret as “sell-side exhaustion.”
- A macro Fibonacci extension lining up almost perfectly with $2.65.
Sounds airtight, right? Well, I’m not entirely sure. Triangles are cool and all, but XRP has been stuck below its 2018 all-time high of $3.84 for six painful years. That’s an eternity in crypto, practically stone-age. If a single dip-and-bounce were enough to slingshot price, we’d already be sipping margaritas on some private island paid for by Ripple tokens. We’re not.
Now here’s the interesting part: macro is a mixed bag
Pro-XRP folks keep pointing at Ripple’s partial legal win over the SEC as a reason the token should moon. Sure, the July 2023 ruling said programmatic sales aren’t securities, but Judge Torres left the door open on institutional sales. Meanwhile, the SEC is appealing that very decision. If you think Gary Gensler’s crew will roll over quietly, you haven’t watched him grill Congressional committees with that trademark straight-face scowl.
On the broader market side, the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) recently bounced off 100 support. A strengthening buck usually shoves risk assets—Bitcoin included—into a cold shower. And if Bitcoin stalls, altcoins like XRP tend to get body-slammed. It’s hard to see how XRP goes vertical to $2.65 (a 280% move from today’s ~$0.70) unless Bitcoin itself is flirting with a six-figure blow-off top. We’re not there yet.
But wait, isn’t utility the real catalyst?
Whenever price action stalls, Ripple executives pivot to “utility will win the day”. They tout partnerships with Tranglo, Santander, and various Middle Eastern remittance corridors. Those deals are cool, but on-chain data from XRPSCAN shows that daily active addresses hover around a modest 70–90k. For comparison, Ethereum averages 450k–900k daily actives. So, sure, RippleNet may process some cross-border flows, but the network still isn’t humming like an Ethereum or even a Solana.
I admit the upcoming XRP Ledger 2.0 (with native hooks and sidechains) could juice usage, but this is software—we’re talking months, maybe years, before the average fintech app integrates any of it. Meanwhile, traders want action now.
Crowd sentiment is screaming “bullish,” and that worries me
Flip over to Crypto Fear & Greed and we’re flirting with “Greed” territory again. On Telegram channels like XRP Signals VIP, every other post is a screenshot of that $2.65 target. When my non-crypto barber asked me yesterday if XRP is “finally going to explode,” I felt that classic contrarian twitch. You know the one—when normies start quoting Fibonaccis at you, it’s probably exit-liquidity season.
Let’s crunch some numbers because hopium isn’t a valuation model
• Current supply: roughly 54B XRP in circulation.
• Market cap at today’s price (~$0.70): <$38B.
• Market cap at $2.65: about $143B.
That would outrank BNB and nip at Ethereum’s heels. Does XRP deserve to be the second-biggest chain by economic activity? Maybe one day. But today? I don’t see the revenues, gas burn, or DeFi ecosystem to justify it. And don’t tell me about the escrow unlocks—Ripple still controls half the supply, releasing 1B XRP every month. Even though they claim most of it goes back into escrow, supply overhang doesn’t disappear magically.
Devil’s advocate: what if Egrag is right?
Look, I’m not immune to FOMO. If the SEC case settles favorably and Ripple scores a major remittance win (say, India’s UPI rails), XRP could melt faces. Historical volatility on XRP is notorious; 300% moves happen in weeks, not months. A $2.65 wick is absolutely possible—even probable—if macro aligns, Bitcoin breaks $85k, and legal clouds part.
But I’d treat that scenario like a trade, not an investment thesis. Ride the wave, set tight stop-losses, and don’t get married to the coin. There’s a reason pros on Bybit liquidations tracker love shorting euphoric alts: upside is capped by reality; downside is infinite when dreams implode.
“When the crowd is leaning one way, the path of maximum pain usually lies the other way.” – anonymous CT degen
Why this matters for your portfolio
If you’re a long-term hodler, chasing every XRP breakout alert is mental torture. Better to zoom out: Ripple’s litigation, upcoming Fed rate decisions, and Bitcoin’s next halving (April 2024) will steer the entire ship. Personally, I’m allocating fresh capital to liquid staking derivatives (stETH, rETH) and high-throughput chains (looking at you, SEI) while keeping a modest 3% flyer on XRP—just enough to feel something if it pumps, but not enough to wreck me if it dumps.
Could I be wrong? Absolutely. Markets love to humble skeptics. But until I see sustained on-chain demand, clear legal clarity, and a friendlier macro backdrop, I’m viewing $2.65 price targets as more marketing sizzle than steak.
Okay, so what’s the play?
1. Watch volume. If spot volume on Binance and Coinbase Pro triples while price stalls, that’s distribution, not moon fuel.
2. Set alerts at $1.10 (previous local top) and $0.55 (key support). Those will be my action triggers.
3. Follow the legal docket. I keep the PACER RSS feed for SEC vs. Ripple bookmarked; any settlement rumor moves price faster than MACD crossovers.
4. Check DXY. If the dollar tanks, risk assets breathe. A DXY print below 98 could give Egrag’s model wings.
I’ll gladly eat crow on Crypto-Twitter if XRP rockets to $2.65 by Christmas. But for now, champagne stays on ice and my stop-loss remains tight. Trade safe, stack sats, and don’t let hopium drain your dry powder.
Got a different take? Ping me on X (formerly Twitter) @ContrarianBytes. I’m always up for a civil debate—charts or it didn’t happen.
Disclosure: I hold a small bag of XRP (< 2% of my crypto portfolio) at the time of writing. None of this is financial advice—DYOR and never invest more than you’re willing to lose.
